Politics

Andrea Leadsom refuses to rule out future leadership bid

The Brexit hardliner refused to rule out another shot at the top job in future—but said she backs May to seek a good deal

November 01, 2018
Photo: David Mirzoeff/PA Wire/PA Images
Photo: David Mirzoeff/PA Wire/PA Images

Only a few years ago, few outside politics had heard of Andrea Leadsom. Conservative MP for South Northamptonshire since 2010, Leadsom became a junior minister and then reached the lower ranks of the cabinet in 2015. But she flew below the radar. In the referendum she was a relatively low-profile Leave campaigner: at least compared with some names.

Yet today she is one of the most important political players in the Brexit debate. Leadsom shot to national attention in 2016 when, in the wake of the Brexit vote, she stood for the Tory leadership. When Boris Johnson combusted, she made it to the final round as the darling of the hardline Eurosceptics.

Her own implosion could hardly have been more dramatic: after a deeply controversial interview in which she said May’s lack of children put her leadership credentials in doubt, scandal ensued. She dropped out and May won by default.

Leadsom has been a controversial figure ever since. May brought her into the fold, first as environment secretary, now as leader of the Commons, but she remains a Eurosceptic troublemaker. Last month she hosted a “pizza summit,” allegedly for mutinous cabinet Leavers. With May treading a political tightrope over Brexit, and Johnson and David Davis having already resigned, any further power moves from Leadsom could light the Tory tinder box and drum up yet more speculation about the PM's future.

Which is why I was surprised by what followed. When we met in her parliamentary office on Halloween, I opened with the obvious questions. Has the government lost its Brexit nerve? Will May keep her job for the long-term?

On this last one, she stirred up trouble. At the first time of questioning, Leadsom insisted that she remained “fully committed to this PM," adding that her leadership is “a matter for her. Then arguably a slightly more ambiguous "all I can say is today, I am fully backing the prime minister to get us a good deal.” But asked if she would categorically rule out a future leadership bid herself, she replied: “I am not speculating.” Pressed further, she said: “Well, you know, I don't play crystal ball games.” That’s a no, then.

Several hardline Leavers would welcome a future bid by Leadsom. Tensions in the Tory Party erupted after the publication of the Chequers plan, which would lock Britain into close alignment with Europe. Three ministers walked out over the proposals. Many Conservative MPs and members doubt May’s commitment to the cause; not Leadsom’s.

She remains bound by collective responsibility, and made clear that she had no intention of resigning as things stand.

But what, in Leadsom’s view, would be a resigning issue? Would she step down if May agreed to a permanent customs union? Leadsom deflected: “the PM is quite clear that the UK won't be signing up to a deal that traps the UK in some sort of eternal customs arrangement.”

Reports suggest that May could indeed sign up to that. This would stop Britain striking free trade deals, and Leadsom stressed the vital importance of those deals no less than seven times during our conversation: “There are some great opportunities out there like the trans-pacific partnership,” she explained. These kinds of agreement are “a key advantage from Brexit.”

Assuring me that none of them had yet been crossed, Leadsom added: “in any negotiation, I will always judge by my red lines… that we will be outside the overarching jurisdiction of the ECJ, that free movement will end, that we won't be paying the EU subs, that we will be out of the single market.”

What was her response to the “pizza summit” reports? “I do have regular meetings with colleagues. I mean that that particular meeting was widely reported on—but not by me, I should add.”

For now, Leadsom remains leader of the commons, and insisted she is happy there. “I'm so enjoying the job I'm doing. It is honestly, at the time of leaving the EU, just fascinating to be really in the engine room of this enormous change.”

This means she is closely involved in questions of Brexit and parliamentary process. Any deal struck with Europe will come back for MPs’ approval, but some Brexiteers have already said that they will vote against.

In practice this could mean the government is reliant on Labour votes: not a comfortable position when the Labour leadership has vowed to vote against the deal.

Does Leadsom admit this is a possibility? Again, she answered the question implicitly. “I've heard this thesis that you know, it's a terrible thing to rely on Labour votes. The reality is we have a hung parliament.”

“All day long we in government, in a hung parliament, are seeking to persuade colleagues right across the hall.” MPs of all parties should “consider it their obligation to fulfil the referendum and that is my hope,” she said—but “I'm quite sure I will be disappointed.”

The government has been accused of trying to stop MPs having a meaningful say on the deal. Will they be able to amend what comes back? Various politicians including Dominic Raab have weighed in over recent days. Leadsom is as well placed to answer as anyone: “by definition a motion of the house in the Commons is amendable but on the other hand… amendments that totally changed the way in which the deal might work… would in effect mean that the government could not proceed.”

Whether this will reassure sceptical MPs keen to avoid a “take it or leave it” scenario, is an open question.

If MPs do reject the deal, or if May cannot land one with Europe, the consequences could be very serious indeed. A cliff-edge departure, by all expert accounts, would throw Britain into economic and constitutional chaos.

Asked whether she recognised this, Leadsom said: “We are looking at the scenarios for different sectors. And obviously there have been some very clear steers on where there might be short-term capacity issues. The government is being clear about those and will give further advice as we pin down exactly what the consequences would be.”

“The issue around this term ‘no deal’ also depends on whether there can be some bilateral arrangements,” Leadsom continued, addressing speculation that the government could still strike a string of “mini deals” after formal talks collapse.

The answer here was troubling. That the government has not, by her own admission, pinned down what the consequences would be speaks volumes to the lack of adequate Brexit preparation. Suspicions will remain that the government is ill-equipped for a WTO Brexit. That is certainly my own view.

We were running out of time. Leadsom summed up her position: “I am entirely pragmatic, and I think what we should seek to do, is to have as strong a trading and security and cultural relationship as we can with the EU27, whilst making sure that we're delivering on the will of the people.”

I had one final question. The PM has been accused of side-lining ministers. Does May sufficiently take into account the views of her cabinet? Leadsom sounded conciliatory: “she is absolutely taking into account the views of her cabinet colleagues.” Then added: “It’s important that she does.”

The atmosphere in the Tory Party has never been so fraught. Brexit has cleaved it in two, and there is weekly speculation that May could lose her job. In the uncertainty that is coming over the next weeks and months, keep an eye on Andrea Leadsom. While Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg plot from the backbenches, one suspects Leadsom could yet pounce if the chance comes her way.