• Home
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Date/Time
  • Login
  • Subscribe

logo

  • Home
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
Home
  • Home
  • Blogs
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
  • Home

George Magnus

Insights into the global economy

Not yet worrying about a trade war? It may be time to start

It is time to realise that Trump’s America is not only an unequal partner, but also an unreliable ally

by George Magnus / June 5, 2018 / Leave a comment
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

US President Donald Trump speaks to the press. Photo: PA

If you’re not yet been concerned about the outbreak of a global trade war, then perhaps this is a good time to start. None of the world’s biggest trading blocs, the US, China and the EU will be spared—but it is likely to be especially uncomfortable for smaller, open economies like the UK, whose entire trade structure could, in any case, be torpedoed by Brexit.

To recapitulate, President Donald Trump came into office in January 2017 with fiery, aggressive ‘America First’ trade rhetoric. True, Trump pulled the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement straight away and kicked off a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, but for a year very little happened.

Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met in Florida and later in Beijing, the rhetoric was friendly, supposed agreements were publicised, and all seemed sweetness and light. But from January this year onwards, things have gone from bad to worse.

Initially, the US imposed tariffs on washing machines and a few other products. Then the White House threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium, which, after an interim period, were recently activated—much to the anger of the EU, but also other allies including Canada, Mexico, and South Korea. The latest on trade between the US and China is that a third meeting of top officials this week ended in an impasse.

Things may go quiet now ahead of the planned US-North Korea Summit in Singapore on 12th June, but the thorny issues of global commerce are sure to revive soon.

If nothing happens to resuscitate the talks, $100 billion of bilateral trade will be at risk in the first instance. China has stated it would void all commitments to buy more US goods, and lower some tariffs.

It would also probably pull back from vague promises to open its markets up to US firms, if the US decides to implement tariffs on China’s key industries.

The US has plans to impose tariffs on a further $100 billion of Chinese exports to the US. China would doubtless retaliate, and no-one can know where this tit-for-tat might end—and at what cost to world trade, the global economy and people’s living…

YOU’VE HIT THE LIMIT

You have now reached your limit of 3 free articles in the last 30 days.
But don’t worry! You can get another 7 articles absolutely free, simply by entering your email address in the box below.

When you register we’ll also send you a free e-book—Writing with punch—which includes some of the finest writing from our archive of 22 years. And we’ll also send you a weekly newsletter with the best new ideas in politics and philosophy of culture, which you can of course unsubscribe from at any time







Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

5504126685dea1fdfa3f135.53622433

Go to comments

Related articles

Every possible Brexit outcome spells disaster for the Conservative Party
Jonathan Lis / June 6, 2019
All Brexit outcomes spell the demolition of the oldest and most successful political...
Street politics: how Britain is failing a hidden cohort of homeless non-voters
James Walker / June 6, 2019
Although homeless Britons are eligible to vote, figures suggest less than 1 per cent are...
Share with friends
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

Comments

  1. NR_BUCHSBAUM
    June 6, 2018 at 15:59
    The arrangements that led to most current trading treaties and agreements were made many years ago and needed to be updated as most contracts do from time to time. Those enjoying an advantage based on being in much weaker circumstances when those agreements were consummated must understand that updating requires that they forego what is no longer a reasonable arrangement for the US. Why should Germany and the UK export autos to the US and pay a 2.5% tariff while US-made autos pay four times that tariff or 10% if sent to Germany or the UK. No American senator or congressman could possibly diasgree, so Cecilia Malmstrom's position is ridiculous per se. The EU must realize by now that it is not dealing with Theresa May in Donald Trump, and Trump has American popular support that major European countries, like Germany, France, Italy and Spain, are not paying their fair share for common defense let alone maintaining sufficiently large militaries to defend themselves. The EU look like prostitutes to normal Americans who watched as EU businesses flooded into Iran while it spreads terrorism and attempts to become the hegemon of the Middle East. If Europe does not see or attempt to look at these issues from an American viewpoint, it will convince ordinary Americans that we need new alliances with different countries. That would indeed be a shame.

Prospect's free newsletter

The big ideas that are shaping our world—straight to your inbox. PLUS a free e-book and 7 articles of your choosing on the Prospect website.

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information. Click here to learn more about these purposes and how we use your data. You will be able to opt-out of further contact on the next page and in all our communications.

This Month's Magazine

Perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus.

Inside the choice facing voters this General Election—and why the commission that regulates our democracy is struggling to keep up. Plus: Clive James on Wittgenstein, and the real story of Corbynism

Subscribe

Most Popular

  • Read
  • Commented

The Royal Navy is caught in the middle of Iran’s proxy wars

Listen: Headspace #36—From cold war to hot peace

The politics and the substance of Labour’s new amendment to the withdrawal bill

Will the UK lose access to the European Arrest Warrant post-Brexit?

As the Brexit muddle worsens, it's time to hurry up and leave

Ivan Rogers on Brexit: the worst is yet to come

3 Comments

How dare those signed up to hard Brexit lecture Labour on the economy?

2 Comments

The real "Sorry We Missed You"—and what the government gets wrong about the gig economy

1 Comments

A 68-seat Johnson majority: do YouGov’s startling election figures make sense?

1 Comments

Why the London result will decide the next General Election

1 Comments

About this author

George Magnus
George Magnus is a well known economist and former Chief Economist at UBS. His forthcoming book is "Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy" (Yale University Press)
  • Follow George on:
  • Twitter
More by this author

More by George Magnus

The new north American trade deal contains a lesson for Brexit Britain
October 8, 2018
Of course it was right to rescue the banks
October 2, 2018
Ten years since the Lehman collapse, remember how it all unravelled?
September 10, 2018

Next Prospect events

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club - David Lammy

    London, 2020-03-19

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club - Jack Shenker

    2020-02-17

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club - Amelia Gentleman

    2020-01-27

See more events

Sponsored features

  • Delivering the UK's invisible infrastructure project

  • Future of Aid: the full report

  • A forest fund for the future

  • A new humanitarianism for the modern age

  • The future of sustainable economic development

PrimeTime

The magazine is owned and supported by the Resolution Group, as part of its not-for-profit, public interest activities.

Follow us
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google+
  • RSS

Editorial

Editor: Tom Clark
Deputy Editor: Steve Bloomfield
Managing Editor (Arts & Books): Sameer Rahim
Head of Digital: Stephanie Boland
Digital Assistant: Rebecca Liu
Production Editor & Designer: Chris Tilbury
Commissioning Editor: Alex Dean
Creative Director: Mike Turner
US Writer-at-Large: Sam Tanenhaus

Commercial

Commercial Director: Alex Stevenson
Head of Marketing: Paul Mortimer
Marketing and Circulation Executive: Susan Acan
Head of Events: Victoria Jackson
Events Project Manager: Nadine Prospere
Head of Advertising Sales: Adam Kinlan 020 3372 2934
Head of Key Accounts: Scott Smith 020 3372 2972
Senior Account Manager: Patrick Lappin 020 3372 2931

  • Home
  • Advertising
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Acceptable Use Policy
© Prospect Publishing Limited
×
Login
Login with your subscriber account:
You need a valid subscription to login.
I am
Remember Me


Forgotten password?

Or enter with social networking:
Login to post comments using social media accounts.
  • With Twitter
  • Connect
  • With Google +
×
Register Now

Register today and access any 7 articles on the Prospect’s website for FREE in the next 30 days..
PLUS find out about the big ideas that will shape our world—with Prospect’s FREE newsletter sent to your inbox. We'll even send you our e-book—Writing with punch—with some of the finest writing from the Prospect archive, at no extra cost!

Not Now, Thanks

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

×
You’ve got full access!

It looks like you are a Prospect subscriber.

Prospect subscribers have full access to all the great content on our website, including our entire archive.

If you do not know your login details, simply close this pop-up and click 'Login' on the black bar at the top of the screen, then click 'Forgotten password?', enter your email address and press 'Submit'. Your password will then be emailed to you.

Thank you for your support of Prospect and we hope that you enjoy everything the site has to offer.

This site uses cookies to improve the user experience. By using this site, you agree that we can set and use these cookies. For more details on the cookies we use and how to manage them, see our Privacy and Cookie Policy.