The next few weeks will see the first test of the recently rekindled partnership between the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). Reunited after 30 years apart and heralded by David Cameron as a “dynamic political force”, the two parties are finalising plans to field a joint candidate in June’s European election. Yet why get back together now? And how shrewd a move will this prove for the Tories?
Cameron says working with the unionists will help him fight every UK constituency in the next election, making the Conservatives Britain’s biggest party. The idea is that the two parties will field joint candidates in future elections, possible under the banner of “The Conservative and Unionist Party”. Getting into bed with the UUP offers Cameron an Ulster-wide structure to build on, as well as the support of a large number of local government and regional representatives, and could prove useful in the case of a hung parliament in the next election
Yet a cannier move might have been to cosy up to the UUP’s main rivals the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Certainly this is the view of veteran Tory trouble-maker Nicholas Winterton, given at a recent dinner in honour of former DUP leader Ian Paisley. Winterton said:
“It is only a rejuvenated and purposeful Conservative and Unionist party, in alliance with the DUP here in Ulster, which is in a position to highlight the threat to our nations posed by the Government's reckless and ill-thought out constitutional vandalism."
Winterton is right on one point. The once dominant UUP have long been in decline. The DUP, in contrast, have established themselves as Northern Ireland’s biggest party, and their nine MPs (to the UUP’s one) would offer Cameron more parliamentary clout in a future election. To make matters worse, the UUP’s sole Westminster representative, Lady Sylvia Hermon, has been a consistent supporter of Labour, and is thought to be suspicious of the link-up.
Nor are joint UUP/Conservative candidates likely to have greater success in future elections. The alliance has ruined any chance of a mooted electoral pact between the DUP and UUP designed to avoid splitting the unionist vote (the two parties would have agreed not to stand against each other in constituencies where a divided unionist vote could allow either Sinn Fein or the SDLP to sneak a victory). The Conservatives/UUP will have to fight tooth and nail for every seat against a DUP galvanized by their resentment of the partnership.
Worse still for Cameron, confusion surrounds the alliance. He insists it will “change politics in Northern Ireland”, but doesn’t say whether the UUP will eventually be swallowed up into a new Conservative and Unionist party. Other questions still have to be answered – will UUP members be included in a future Cameron cabinet? And what will become of the current UUP leadership?
In truth, Cameron doesn’t need the UUP to win the next election, and bringing it on board might give him more headaches than reward. Winterton's discontent is mirrored in the UUP rank and file membership, which fears losing its identity, and is suspicious of the Conservatives’ new social liberalism.
So what exactly is Cameron up to? Could it be that he genuinely cares about the “long and intimate” relationship between the two parties”, who “stood side by side in times of crisis”? If it is only tradition and his “great respect for the UUP” that has moved him rekindle this political marriage, Cameron may find that he has taken a gamble he will come to regret.
