Washington watch: rise of the red states

People are moving to red states—which is bad news for Barack Obama and the Democrats
May 25, 2010
Keeping it in the family: Richard Nixon’s grandson is running for Congress
Barack Obama’s re-election is going to be tougher than the polls suggest—and it’s all down to people moving house. The latest US census, which is carried out every ten years, took place in April. The results are due in December, but the census bureau’s predictions look grim for the Democrats. For the past 100 years or so, there has been a gradual shift of population to the south and west of America, to what now tend to be Republican-held red states. As each state’s representation in the House is determined by population, the 2010 census results will make it harder for the Democrats to hold on to their majority when the changes take effect in the 2012 elections. The Democrat blue states of Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio look almost certain to lose a congressional seat each, and Pennsylvania may lose two (it has lost two or more seats in the House with every census since 1930). And there’s worse news for Obama. US presidents are elected not by direct vote but by the electoral college—seats in which are awarded in line with the representation of each state in both houses of congress. So the states that Obama won in 2008 are going to lose at least seven seats and the ones that he lost could gain nine or ten. Texas should gain three or maybe four, and Florida, South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia should each gain one. Utah will get at least one and maybe two. Obama and the Dems could be saved by the recession, which has stopped people relocating. In 2008, 11.9 per cent of Americans moved—the lowest number since records began in 1948. And moves between states are at half the rate of 2000. Of course, it could be argued that the electoral college should be replaced by direct voting. But unlike Britain, the US won’t be changing its rules any time soon. Oxonians in washington At the height of the euro crisis, Obama phoned French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel to back the rescue package and promise US support. (See Brussels diary opposite.) This intervention was orchestrated by Oxford graduate Mike Froman. A former aide to Robert Rubin and head of Citibank’s insurance operations, Froman was on the Harvard Law Review with Obama and was an early choice to be the president’s sherpa at the G7 and G20 summits. Based at the national security council, Froman co-ordinated the treasury, the Fed and the IMF so that Obama could offer Merkel US backing for the currency swaps and the IMF part of the package. In the post-election chaos, the British were not involved except to nod through the IMF facility of €250bn (£214bn). So British credibility in Washington erodes yet further—although the new supreme court nominee Elena Kagan went to Oxford, too. The end of the old guard First elected to congress in 1969, Dave Obey of Wisconsin is the last of the 1960s liberals. No Democratic party in Washington is complete without his harmonica whining out “The Times They Are a-Changin’.” Obey is also hugely powerful as chairman of the appropriations committee, which decides where the money gets spent. His 13 sub-committee chairmen are known as the college of cardinals, which makes Obey the equivalent of the Pope. Yet it speaks volumes about grim Democratic prospects that the 71-year-old has decided not to run for re-election in November. His cardinals are also giving up one by one too: science chairman Bart Gordon of Tennessee is retiring, Alan Mollohan of West Virginia (commerce, justice and science) just lost a primary fight, while defence chairman Jack Murtha of Pennsylvania died in February. Elsewhere the chairmen of committees on armed services, resources, budget, transportation and infrastructure, and agriculture are also in electoral difficulties. Congress has not seen such bloodletting among power-brokers since the Republican sweep of 1994. Bush no good for brainiacs Now we know who the George W Bush administration was good for. Economist Michael Mandel has analysed local income data from the bureau of labour for the eight years of Dubya’s presidency. It turns out that all the districts with the biggest rise in per capita incomes were either oil and gas centres like Houma, Louisiana (up 46 per cent) and Odessa, Texas (up 33 per cent), or regions around military bases, such as Fort Hood, Texas (up 34 per cent). In contrast, the places with the sharpest falls were the Silicon Valley hub of San Jose (down 12 per cent), the university town of Ann Arbor, Michigan (down 8 per cent) and the research triangle around Raleigh, North Carolina (down 6 per cent). The Bush years were not kind to the educated classes. Measured by growth in per capita income, the top ten cities had an average graduate population of 17.7 per cent, compared to 31.8 per cent for the bottom ten. The grandson also rises The dynastic principle is in fine shape in the US. Christopher Nixon Cox, grandson of Richard Nixon, is likely to get the Republican nomination to run for congress in Long Island. Democrat Jason Carter, grandson of Jimmy Carter, has won a by-election for a seat in Georgia’s state senate. And Andy Cuomo is poised to follow dad Mario as governor of New York. Meanwhile, Chelsea Clinton has politely turned down Obama’s offer of a White House wedding and will marry her college boyfriend, banker Marc Mezvinsky, in late July near the family home in Chappaqua, New York. The father of the bride, who is getting chunky again, has been instructed to lose 14 pounds by then.