"Inflation will breach the Bank's 2 per cent target rate but when it does the Bank is unlikely to do anything about it"by Andy Davis / November 17, 2016 / Leave a comment
Published in December 2016 issue of Prospect Magazine
Possibly the least contentious financial prediction one can make for 2017 is that inflation in the UK will go up. The consensus among economists is that it will reach at least 3 per cent sometime next year and some think 4 per cent more likely. This, of course, is thanks to the drop in sterling’s value against most other currencies since the European Union referendum, which has made our imports more expensive to buy with enfeebled pounds and pence.
The only prediction I can offer with even greater confidence is that in the absence of overwhelming necessity, interest rates will not go up in order to curb the price increases that everyone—and certainly every Marmite-lover—is now expecting. Actually, this isn’t even a prediction. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has made it clear that not only will inflation breach the Bank’s 2 per cent target rate but that when it does, the Bank is unlikely do anything about it.
For some years now, inflation has been dormant. Following a two-year period of accelerating price rises that ended in late 2011, the headline rate turned down and spent much of 2015 bobbing around zero. For the past year or so it’s been edging back upwards and we will now see that trend gather momentum.