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Cameron outflanked

A strong showing by UKIP in European elections could spell trouble for the Tory vote

By Peter Kellner   July 2012

For a larger version of this chart, click here

To read James Macintyre’s full article on UKIP’s rise, click here

UKIP came fourth in 1999, third in 2004, and second in 2009. Is it possible that in the next elections to the European parliament in 2014, UKIP could come top?

The short answer is yes. Unless there is a big change in fortunes of the main political parties, I expect a close fight between UKIP and Labour for first place, both winning around 25 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing third on around 20 per cent. (The Lib Dems…

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