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A three-part crisis

It could be worse than the crash of 2008

by Anatole Kaletsky / June 16, 2016 / Leave a comment
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Published in July 2016 issue of Prospect Magazine
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, N.C., Tuesday, June 14, 2016 ©Chuck Burton/AP/Press Association Images

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Greensboro Coliseum, North Carolina, 14th June. A Trump presidency combined with as Brexit and resurgent nationalism in Germany would harm our economy far more than the 2008 financial crisis, Kaletsky argues ©Chuck Burton/AP/Press Association Images

What is the biggest threat to the world economy in the year ahead? Forget about slumping industry in China, failing banks or unpredictable monetary policy. All these familiar economic problems pale into insignificance compared with the combined risks of Brexit, a Trump presidency and resurgent nationalism in Germany. If any of these threats are realised, the consequences will far outweigh the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. Just as in the 1930s, the upsurge of nationalism and protectionism turned out to be far more important than the 1929 stockmarket crash.

Business managers and investors usually downplay political risks. After declaring that their companies can succeed in any political environment, they often add, sotto voce, that politicians rarely carry out rash promises made in election campaigns. In today’s conditions, this is wishful thinking. The political insurgents will doubtless change their minds about many issues, but the promises to which they will have to commit themselves in order to win elections will be exactly the ones that are most economically destructive: a Brexit victory will pull Britain out of Europe; a Trump presidency will certainly start with a tariff war with China and…

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Comments

  1. Harry Heller
    June 17, 2016 at 08:50
    Will this be posted?
  2. Toni
    June 22, 2016 at 02:44
    Well, if I look at the positions this magazine took in important issues, the results are as follows: you are pro-Hitlary and against Trump; you are pro- EU and anti-Brexit; you are pro-NATO muscling up in the East and against reconciliation with Russia. In short, you are always on the side of the One-Worldlers. Given one or two exceptions, you just toe the line of the MSM.

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About this author

Anatole Kaletsky
Anatole Kaletsky is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking
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