Tony Blair's campaign to become the first president of the European council has been dealt a lethal blow before it ever really got going. The post, created by the new EU reform treaty, will not be filled before December 2008 at the earliest, but Blair had received a surprising semi-endorsement from Nicolas Sarkozy in the autumn. But now two other leaders have all but declared Blair unacceptable. Angela Merkel and Romano Prodi are seasoned politicians who do not couch things in direct and personal terms. Nevertheless, at a recent summit, the German chancellor and Italian prime minister agreed that they expect the first EU president to come from a country that takes part in the EU's core policies. With its legion of opt-outs, Britain hardly satisfies that criterion. The second, unspoken argument against Blair is the divisive role he played in the Iraq war. One senior MEP harks back to the famous council of war in the Azores when Blair met George Bush, José María Aznar, then Spanish prime minister, and José Manuel Barroso, the former Portuguese premier who is now president of the European commission. "Aznar's gone and Bush is going," said the MEP, "and we can't have the other two running Europe."
Other candidates for the post include the Danish prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who coincidentally has just announced plans to hold referendums to end Denmark's EU opt-outs, including its self-exclusion from the euro. Then there's Polish ex-president Aleksander Kwasniewski. As a socialist he would provide balance to the likely reappointment of the centre-right Barroso as commission president—a particular advantage if the other post being created by the treaty, foreign representative, goes to a right-winger.
But the man to beat is the chain-smoking, wine-loving veteran of EU politics, Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg since 1995. He is Merkel's favoured candidate, but his public coyness over the post may hand momentum to a rival. Juncker does covet the job, but conceals the fact because he is such a central figure among his country's Christian Democrats. The fear is that if Juncker is seen to be in an unseemly rush to abandon his country, his rival, Luxembourg's socialist leader, Jean Asselborn, might capitalise on the fact, potentially ending the hegemony of the Luxembourger centre right. So Juncker is waiting for the calls for him to "save Europe" to grow so loud that the 480,000-strong population of Luxembourg feels he is doing the right thing by leaving them. Juncker could then claim he was putting the grand duchy on the international map. It may need it. During the 1990s, Bill Clinton visited the tiny country and was told that the day would be devoted to showing him around. "But what will we do in the afternoon?" asked Clinton.
Slovenia's troubles
Slovenia becomes the first of the former communist countries to take on the EU presidency on 1st January. But there is anxiety in Ljubljana that their six months in charge will be overshadowed by Kosovo. The Slovenian prime minister, Janez Jansa, will seek to calm the Kosovars' desire for independence at least until the Serbian presidential elections in February, when nationalists in Belgrade will aim to take advantage of the tension. Jansa worries that a declaration of independence in Kosovo may have a ripple effect in the region and prompt Bosnia's Serbs to force the break-up of Bosnia Herzegovina.
Jansa has problems at home too—a vitriolic dispute over press freedom. Around 400 Slovene journalists have signed a petition arguing that the state influences key appointments in the media. The protest, which provoked a furious response from ministers, claims that the government has established "an informal and influential decision-making pyramid" under which media executives "censor journalists' texts which are critical of the authorities." And in November, Slovenes elected a new left-wing president, Danilo Türk. The centre-right candidate, supported by Jansa's ruling Slovenian Democratic party, suffered a crushing defeat, raising questions about how long Jansa's administration can survive. But should the Slovene government fall, the EU will not be in unchartered territory. A few years ago, one government managed to soldier on with the EU presidency without having a functioning parliamentary majority: Slovenia's neighbour, Italy.
The Belgian bore
Louis Michel, the Belgian commissioner for development, has a legendary capacity to talk even when he has nothing to say. At a recent press conference with Barroso, Michel launched into a verbose speech even though his boss had only a few minutes to spare before leaving to catch a flight. Woe betide anyone who seeks to prevent Michel from speaking. At one recent seminar, he walked out after his microphone was cut off following a lengthy intervention. But Michel is hardly indulgent of his colleagues. At a recent meeting, commissioner Viviane Reding spent 20 minutes discussing her plans for a European telecoms regulator, concluding with: "I hope that answers all your questions." Michel responded tartly: "But Viviane, we didn't have the chance to put any questions."
