Calm in public, Hillary Clinton is getting edgy in private, and not because the other Democrats are ganging up on her. Her concern is that the Bush White House is setting a trap for her over Iran. Despite Bush's warning of "world war three" in his recent UN speech, the consensus in Washington is that the odds are lengthening on a military strike on Iran. But Clinton is worried that the Bush administration could whip up a border incident between American and Iranian troops into a provocation, and then send in the bombers, with broad support. What would she do? If she opposes air strikes, she gets labelled a wimp. If she backs them, much of the Democratic base will be outraged. Clinton has to hope nothing happens before "Super-Duper Tuesday," 5th February 2008, when 21 states hold their primaries, including California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey. She reckons the nomination will be settled then, and that in the event of air strikes with her support, she would only have to worry about angry scenes at the party convention in August.
The death of public finance
Troubled by polls that give her just 29 per cent against 27 per cent for Obama in the Iowa caucuses scheduled for 3rd January, Clinton has deployed another 100 staffers to the state on top of the 117 she already has. John Edwards has 130 paid workers in Iowa and Obama 145. Only 100,000 Iowans voted in the 2004 caucuses, so that makes one Democratic staffer for every 180 likely voters. The leading Republican in Iowa, Mitt Romney, has only 67 staffers. But as his own chief fundraiser, Romney has to pay for them himself. As of October, he had loaned his campaign $17.4m of the $62.4m he has raised so far.
With the vast amounts being spent by candidates this year, the charade of publicly financed campaigns is finally dying out. Starting in 1976, as a response to Watergate, voters were invited to donate $1 to a public purse when filing their tax returns. Candidates were allowed to draw upon this public money on condition that they observed an overall spending limit throughout their campaign.
This year that limit is $50m for the primaries, of which $21m can come from public funds. But both Clinton and Obama expect to spend over $200m, and so cannot apply for public money. In fact, of the main candidates, only John Edwards has applied (McCain may yet do so). This is just as well, since fewer than 10 per cent of taxpayers make what is now a $3 donation, and the system is near bankruptcy.
Who will the Bushes back?
Like the Republican party, the Bush family are all over the place as they decide which candidate to back for the nomination. Young George P Bush, the son of former Florida governor Jeb, has pledged to raise $50,000 for Fred Thompson. His little brother Jebby has signed on to work for the Giuliani campaign in Florida. The president's sister Dorothy has held a fundraising event for Mitt Romney, and the president's brother Neil has appeared at a Texas fundraiser for Romney.
The stars of the family are being studiously neutral in public in what will be only the second presidential campaign since 1976 without a Bush in the race. (They all ducked the '96 election.) Bush senior held fundraisers for Romney's governorship campaign in Massachusetts a few years ago, and was an old and close friend of Romney's father. Most of Jeb Bush's aides in Florida have joined the Romney campaign, supposedly because Jeb became close to Romney when they were both governors. The president is keeping mum, but he did tell an off-the-record lunch of television reporters not to count out John McCain.
Colin Powell has donated the maximum $2,300 to McCain, and the Arizona senator has also been endorsed by two top aides of Bush senior, former commerce secretary Robert Mosbacher and former secretary of state Larry Eagleburger. Bush senior appeared on a McCain video apparently backing his line on Iraq, but now claims it was only "to support the troops."
Black and Blackwater
Dubya's favourite spook Cofer Black, who made his name tracking down Carlos the Jackal, is working for Romney as a national security adviser. Black, a former CIA counterterrorism chief, won Bush's heart after 9/11 by vowing to hunt down the bad guys. "When we're through with them, they will have flies walking across their eyeballs," he told Bush. He told his CIA team heading to Afghanistan to take plenty of dry ice to ship back Osama bin Laden's severed head.
Black's presence on the Romney campaign may explain its macho style; when asked what he would do about Guantánamo, Romney replied he'd like to double it. Black is vice-chairman of the Blackwater security group, whose state department contracts are being reviewed after too many Iraqi civilians got the flies on eyeballs treatment. He also made enemies in the Pentagon after he told a conference of special forces officers that it was time to unleash the private sector on missions like Darfur. Rather than get bogged down in a Nato-style bureaucracy, he said Blackwater could send a brigade-sized team of 5,000 troops "for a fraction of the cost of Nato operations."
