Chelsea now seem almost certain to win the Premiership title. Arsène Wenger claims that Arsenal's record would be good enough to win the championship "most seasons," and it's just that Chelsea have played exceptionally well. Is he correct? Since 1981-82, when football adopted the system of three points for a win, Arsenal's current points per game (extrapolated forward to the end of the season) would indeed have won them the league on 18 out of 23 occasions. But since 1995-96, when the number of games per season was reduced from 42 to 38, the figures tell a different story. Arsenal's record would have won in just five out of those nine most recent seasons.
Fact-checking Gordon
The chancellor claims that he has presided over the most successful period of economic growth since records began in 1701. True, there hasn't been a recession—a year in which output falls—since 1991. But within living memory there was a much longer period without a recession, from 1949-73, 25 years rather than the mere 13 of which Gordon Brown boasts.
Perhaps the average growth rate has been high? After allowing for inflation, the 1997-2004 average of 2.7 per cent a year is certainly respectable. But again it is beaten by the 1949-73 average of 3 per cent a year, mainly under Conservative governments. Indeed, under Kenneth Clarke, Brown's immediate predecessor, growth averaged 3.1 per cent a year.
There has been much more stability, much less variation from year to year, in the growth rate since 1997. This is an undoubted plus for the chancellor. But economists put this down to "autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity." It beats the "post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory" phrase beloved of Ed Balls, perhaps next chancellor but one.
Not very sure start
You may recall that the ONS had trouble working out the UK population total from the 2001 census returns. At the local level, uncertainties about population size continue to hamper welfare delivery. Take the Sure Start programme, which aims to improve the life chances of children in poor areas. The administrators have two separate estimates of the number of children in each particular area, the 2001 census and the department of work and pensions' estimates of the number of child benefit recipients. They are not the same. The differences range across areas from the DWP's figure being 25 per cent higher than the census to it being 24 per cent lower.
Inequality movements
Just what has been happening to inequality since 1997 under Labour? For a long time after the war, the level of inequality in Britain was more or less constant. It then started to rise sharply with the increases in unemployment under the 1974-79 Labour government. The rise continued with more unemployment and tax cuts for the rich under the Conservatives. As the early 1990s recession struck, the increase was halted, and there was even a slight reduction. Since then, it's been up a bit and down a bit. A small rise in the first Labour term has been followed by a fall in the second, as Brown's focus on reducing poverty among pensioners and children has started to take effect.
So inequality is now back to about the level it was in 1992. One step forwards, one step back.
