The final haggle
Perhaps it is pre-match nerves. But as Brussels gets ready for the final big haggle over the constitution in June, the atmosphere is getting worse again. To recap: everybody decided the constitution was doomed after the collapse of the summit in December. Then, following a change of government in Spain and a change of heart in Poland, it was all hunky dory. Agreement, it was thought, was all but guaranteed by the time the Irish presidency ended in June. But suddenly things are looking dodgy again. Most obviously, the promised referendum in Britain puts final ratification of the treaty in doubt. It also means that Tony Blair has to secure his "red lines," preserving the veto on tax, social security, foreign policy and so on. There should not be too much of a problem on foreign affairs and social security. But tax could be a tussle. The Germans and the French are suddenly in a panic about "delocalisation" - the threat that their industries will move east in search of those delightfully flat (and low) taxes in places like Slovakia and Estonia. Gerhard Schr? has become increasingly vocal about "tax-dumping" and is being backed up by Jacques Chirac.
Against this background, it will be hard for the French and Germans to allow the British (backed by the Irish and much of central Europe) to roll back the opening that exists in the constitution towards tax harmonisation by majority vote. I refer, of course, to article III-62 and its evil twin, article III-63, which suggest that measures on company taxation might be adopted by qualified majority, "provided that they are necessary for the functioning of the internal market and to avoid distortion of competition." The Brits are clearly going to have to nix that. But the French and Germans are equally determined to preserve the text in its current form. They could even take the moral high ground and insist that it is they who are defending the integrity of the document on the table, while a ragtag army of disreputable Britons and easterners try to pull it to pieces. The result would be deadlock, which might suit both the British and the French. Anything that defers the evil moment of a referendum is good news for Blair. But an acrimonious row and a failure to agree would also not be unwelcome for Chirac. Such an outcome would once again drive France and Germany together and Germany and Britain apart; it would allow the French president to pose as a good European and a man of principle - and, best of all, it would mean that he could continue avoiding the question of whether France too will have a referendum. This has become a touchy subject since Nicolas Sarkozy - Chirac's finance minister and potential rival for the presidency - came out in favour of a vote.
Britain's soft power
Tony Blair's rush of blood over the referendum made Britain's position within the EU more precarious. But it remains true that Britain has a bigger reserve of "soft power" than any other member country. It is not only the much-discussed fact that the newly enlarged EU will use English as its working language far more than French. It is also that an anglosphere of cultural influence is expanding in Europe - based around football, television, music and job opportunities in London. You see it most obviously in Scandinavia, Holland and Ireland, where the television schedules mean that the young are brought up on a diet of Manchester United and Inspector Morse. It is even visible in France, where those charged with nurturing the flame of Franco-German friendship are finding it difficult to persuade school pupils to learn German, partly because, as one French official explains "Germany is just not trendy."
But the anglosphere also extends east and to an older generation. Your correspondent recently interviewed Leszek Miller, just a day before he stepped down as Polish prime minister. Miller claimed that one of his most treasured mementos of his period in office was a Beatles album, signed by Paul McCartney, and presented to him by Tony Blair (good staff work by someone at the foreign office). Miller is such a Beatles nut that he even took a day off to make a special pilgrimage to Liverpool. Meanwhile, Aleksander Kwasniewski, Poland's president, is a big Arsenal fan. When he was last in London he insisted on visiting Highbury. And he is not one of those pretend football fans either. A BBC man who interviewed him found that he could barely get the president off the subject of how Ars? Wenger should adjust his tactics for the Champions League.
Political cliché harmonisation
Attending the European commission's daily press briefing is normally a waste of time. They are, however, useful as free language practice. As a point of pride, many journalists refuse to put on the headphones that provide simultaneous translation from French or English - and therefore are in a fug of confusion throughout much of the proceedings. But following things in French is a good way to monitor the harmonisation of political cliché in the EU. Many stock English phrases seem to be literally the same in French. Recently, for example, Pascal Lamy, the trade commissioner, could be heard urging all parties to take advantage of une fen?e d'opportunit?o finish the Doha trade round. As his spokeswoman pointed out, Europe does not want to be le mouton noir of the trade round.
