The return of economics
The hole where the Bush administration's economic policymaking ought to be has been filled by a self-effacing Anglophile. Josh Bolten, who as deputy chief of staff in the White House kept the trains and paper flow running on time, is taking over the office of management and budget-about the only place where real economic thinking gets done these days. Bill Clinton's council of economic security has bitten the dust. Following Larry Lindsey's resignation last December, the venerable council of economic advisers is being evicted from its White House digs and sent off into oblivion in staff quarters around the corner, and most of them are about to retire. The treasury has not been taken seriously by the markets or by the Bushies since the Clinton era. Paul O'Neill kept putting his foot in his mouth. His successor as treasury secretary, John Snow, just obeys orders. Having carried out Karl Rove's plan to let the dollar fall and make those ungrateful euro-nations take the strain of US deficits, Snow is now so detached from his job that he spends most of his time on the Republican fundraising circuit. The going rate for a seat at Snow's table at the Virginia Republicans' dinner on 13th June was $10,000.
It was Bolten at the White House, rather than Snow at the treasury, who did the wheeling and dealing with Congress to get Bush's tax package through. And in his new job, Bolten looks set to be the most powerful budget director since Richard Darman in daddy Bush's White House. He's no fan of the EU and he has a soft spot for Brits in general and Gordon Brown in particular. From 1994-99, he ran "legal and government affairs" (lobbying) for Goldman Sachs in London, developing Anglophile tastes and a warm respect for Gordon. Before that, as top lawyer for the US trade representative in the first Bush administration (which he joined from being the Senate finance committee's trade law specialist), his loathing of the EU's trade hypocrisies and agricultural policies became legendary. Bush liked Bolten from the start, when Bolten learned fast that his job as policy director for the Bush-Cheney 2000 presidential campaign meant keeping the "pointy-heads" (as Bush dubbed his teams of policy advisers) out of the way, and getting every Bush policy onto a single index card.
Watch out China
If you thought the neoconservatives were only bothered with the middle east, think again. They have just installed a neocon China hawk into the national security apparatus. Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg comes aboard as deputy national security adviser and head of policy planning, attached to Dick Cheney's staff. Even though Bush and Cheney came into office warning that China would be America's "only peer strategic competitor" sometime in the 21st century, the administration has been notoriously light on China expertise. Much to the concern of Chinese diplomats, Friedberg will change that. In a widely noticed essay in the November 2000 issue of Commentary, the leading neocon journal, Friedberg's piece "The Struggle for Mastery in Asia" suggested: "Over the course of the next several decades there is a good chance that the US will find itself engaged in an open and intense geopolitical rivalry with the People's Republic of China." The current booming trade and investment relationship could be transformed, Friedberg added, into sharp military rivalry overnight through "a single catalytic event such as a showdown over Taiwan." So expect lots more presidential waivers on arms for Taiwan.
The Chinese are getting similar messages from other sources-like the very discreet day of talks on 30th May between Donald Rumsfeld's policy guru at the Pentagon, 81-year-old Andrew Marshall, and civilian advisers to the Indian cabinet. The topic of discussion was an Asian Nato, to be anchored on the US and India, with South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan all joining in. No prizes for guessing who it's meant to contain. The Indians professed themselves delighted that, after stopping the Israelis from selling their "Phalcon" Awacs aircraft to China, the Bushies gave Israel the go-ahead to sell it to India. Marshall runs the Office of Net Assessment, the Pentagon's internal think tank, which conducted its first seminar in India last year with counterparts from India's Integrated Defence Staff.
Condy's political love life
Condy's new job on the middle east road map might help her political career and her love life. She has now twice asked former football star Gene Washington, director of operations of the National Football League (NFL), to be her date for White House dinners. A Californian hero who was a star receiver for the San Francisco 49ers, he spent 13 years as a television sportscaster in San Francisco and Los Angeles. For the single Condoleezza, who is eyeing a run for the California governorship in 2006, there could be no more suitable consort. The only problem is that California Republicans are muttering that they can't wait that long, and why can't Condy take on the very vulnerable Barbara Boxer in the Senate race in 2004. Having the high-profile middle east choice is the perfect excuse to duck any campaigning in 2004. Expect the wedding in 2005, with re-elected President Bush as best man, before the golden state goes Republican in 2006.
