Brussels diary

Brussels diary
February 20, 1997

Welcome to the Dutch presidency, the guys who gave us soft drugs, hard guilders and the Maastricht treaty. The next six months will show what else they are peddling to the rest of Europe.

Sir John Kerr, much missed as HMG's man in Brussels, liked to define a Dutchman as someone who sees a wall and accelerates. He was thinking about the last time the Dutch were in the EU driving seat, a traumatic experience for us all.

In 1991, the Eurofederasts in The Hague tried to steer the Brits and the French into supporting a blueprint for political union so unrealistic even Chancellor Kohl refused to go along. The Dutch were isolated and humiliated, but recovered to produce the unloved construct known as the Maastricht treaty.

This time, the Dutch have got a new government, a rare blend of social democrats and free marketeers known as the purple coalition. They claim they are no longer driving under the influence of federalism or any other dubious substances. And they are sticking to the deadline of the Amsterdam summit in mid-June for producing the new Maastricht 2 treaty, despite the distractions of the British election campaign.

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the man in charge of the IGC negotiation is Prime Minister Wim Kok, a gangling former trade union leader with a passion for ice-skating. Others to watch are Hans van Mierlo, who speaks his mind and fails to read his briefs; Michiel Patijn, brainy state secretary and rival to van Mierlo, who is running day-to-day IGC meetings; and Gerrit Zalm, finance minister, whose idea of heaven is launching Emu without the Club Med countries.

Kok's task is to keep these egos in check, while schmoozing with the rest of the union. His strength is that he is a good deal more sociable than his predecessor Ruud Lubbers, the brooding Christian Democrat who made his fortune in the construction industry but never found the time to build bridges with fellow EU leaders, with the exception of Margaret Thatcher.

During 12 years in office, Lubbers made it his job to stand up to Helmut Kohl. He fared pretty well, thanks to support from Mrs T. But both leaders slipped up when they opposed German unification. When Lubbers said there were already too many Germans in Europe, Kohl, the fat man with the elephantine memory, vowed never to forgive.

The chancellor vetoed Lubbers for the posts of president of the European commission and Nato secretary general. To ram the message home, Kohl blocked Amsterdam as the site of the European central bank, insisting, successfully, that it went to Frankfurt.

Suddenly, the Dutch looked like losers, incapable of landing a top Euro-job or an important Euro-site. Their conclusion: it is time to play footsie with the Germans and stop cuddling up to the Eurosceptic Brits. The more the Tories have turned into the party of little England, the more the Dutch have tilted toward Big Bruder in Germany. Another triumph for John Major's diplomacy.

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kok realises that he cannot finish Maastricht 2 on time without the British. That is why he invited Major for a cosy dinner in The Hague on the first day of the Dutch presidency. He appealed to the PM to avoid a Union Jack election. Major agreed. In fact, like the rest of EU leaders, Kok has long given up on Major. His worry, widely shared on the continent, is that Tony Blair will play Rule Britannia, too, in the run-up to the poll. The risk is that a future Labour government will have no room for compromise in the post-election horse-trading when compromises are usually available.

A year ago, Europe's capitals were full of talk about how much easier it would be to do business with a Blair government. But sentiment is shifting as people wake up to the reality that there is not a great deal separating New Labour and the Conservatives on the EU.

Neither party knows what to do about the single currency. Neither is keen on more majority voting. Neither wants to abandon border controls in the name of the frontier-free Europe. Blair still has the reputation for being a nice guy in Brussels, but he should realise that there is only so much mileage to be gained from pledges to sign up to the social chapter. Or so the chaps at the foreign office say.

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which brings us to the subject of Sir John Kerr. Rumours persist that Kerr, who moved to Washington in autumn 1995, is interested in returning to London if Blair wins.

His preferred job, it is said, would be cabinet secretary. That would put Kerr, addicted to political intrigue and Benson & Hedges cigarettes, at the heart of the Whitehall machine.

The question is whether New Labour has the nerve to appoint someone with experience of striking deals rather than postures in the EU. The verdict is that Kerr is dangerously clever. But since when were British civil servants supposed to be safe and stupid?