The man with the plan
Now is the time to buy shares in Kinnock. Ambitious young Eurocrats are angling to join what was once a less than fashionable cabinet. Snooty French diplomats and industrious Germans are suddenly being extraordinarily nice to Kinnock, almost as nice as the Italians, who have always thought the world of him. There are two reasons for this. First, he is almost certainly going to be the next vice-president of the commission, in charge of its external relations at a time when a European foreign policy might no longer be a contradiction in terms. The second reason is that he is suddenly the man everyone in the national governments wants to see, because Neil is the man with "the plan."
Modernised social democracy has reached critical mass in Europe. But facing the immovable object of the European Central Bank, Europe's new governments are not altogether sure what to do with their power. They talk airily of grand projects to spur growth and create jobs. But they don't have one. Kinnock does. The only grand Keynesian scheme around is the Trans-European Networks, the ?250 billion plan to extend the high-speed rail and motorway links into the candidate states of eastern Europe. Kinnock has made this his own.
If you can't buy shares in Kinnock, think about a flutter in the Katowice property market. According to Kinnock's maps, Katowice will be to Europe's future transport system what Crewe was to Britain in the rail era.
Prodi for president
Jacques Santer's hopes of a second term as president of the European commission are just about over, now that the new Italian government has indicated that it will back the former premier Romano Prodi for the job. Santer is a Christian Democrat from a small northern country (Luxembourg), so Europe's protocol of balance favours his replacement by a social democrat from a large southern one. Spain's Felipe Gonzales was favourite until the scandal of his government's dirty war against the Basque terrorists came too close. Then Javier Solana, the professor of solid-state physics who has done a sound job as secretary-general of Nato, took himself out of the running. That leaves Prodi in pole position. Apart from the fact that his claims to be a social democrat (even modernised) are a bit thin, the man who pulled off the apparently impossible feat of getting Italy's finances into sufficient shape to join the euro looks perfect.
The Red Baron
And so farewell, Baron von Richthofen, German ambassador to Nato, proud descendant of the first world war fighter ace. Behind his back the US nicknamed him Snoopy, after the Red Baron in the Peanuts comic strip. He has been moved out to make way for Joachim Bitterlich, who ran Helmut Kohl's private foreign policy (much to the fury of titular foreign minister Klaus Kinkel). Bitterlich had hoped for the job of Monsieur PESC, as Brussels dubs the role of High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy. It was gently pointed out that he had made too many enemies in too many European countries. So: Nato it will be. This should prove interesting if Schr?der decides to take Helmut Kohl's farewell advice and push Kohl's old defence minister, Volker R?he, to be the next Nato secretary-general after Javier Solana retires. Since Germany's Manfred W?rner had the job until five years ago, this could be a hard sell.
Monsieur or madame?
Interesting that Downing Street now talks of Monsieur or Madame PESC. It seems to have accepted that this is a job for a politician, so it will accept the number two slot for our nominee David Hannay, former ambassador to the UN. But with a field which includes Carl Bildt and Volker R?he, stress on the possibility of a Madame PESC seems to imply a British vote for France's Elizabeth Guigou.
Another Jenkins plan
Why did Emma Bonino, Europe's most popular and charismatic commissioner (for humanitarian and consumer affairs and fisheries) turn down the offer of a seat in the new Italian cabinet? She was leaned on heavily by her party leader to take it, and squirmed her way out by saying yes, but only if the job were big enough. She claimed the foreign ministry, knowing that Prime Minister D'Alema's coalition would not hold together if Lamberto Dini were to lose that job. But Bonino's chances of staying on in Brussels for a second term are slim, now that Prodi is coming. There must be something in the rumours that the Vienna summit will go along with the plan (from a committee under the silkily ubiquitous hand of Roy Jenkins) to appoint a new commissioner for human rights.
