José Manuel Barroso, the European commission president, often stresses his concern at the rise in Europe's unemployment rate. But now he is starting to worry that he too could join the ranks of the jobless. Until recently Barroso's nomination for a second term as president was taken for granted, since he had the backing of the EU's centre-right bloc, the EPP, plus some non-conservative heads of state like Gordon Brown. But suddenly Barroso is in trouble, thanks to deteriorating relations with French president Nicolas Sarkozy (see Brussels diary, March 2009).
After Barroso's commission insisted on changes to Sarko's precious car industry rescue plan, the French president retaliated. At an EU summit press conference, Sarkozy twice refused to endorse Barroso for a second term and suggested that the decision be postponed until after the second Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty. Leaders agreed in December that the commission president would be chosen in June and the selection of commissioners left until after the Lisbon vote, which will be probably be in October. (The logic is that the Irish result will determine whether each country will continue to nominate a commissioner.) If delayed until the autumn the nomination of president could become part of a package of jobs, which is certain to provoke horse-trading. In such a Dutch auction Barroso might find his future sacrificed in a byzantine series of trade-offs.
At present Barroso's biggest advantage is the dearth of plausible alternatives, but a postponement could also allow more challengers to emerge. Rumours are rife that Sarko wants to push the French prime minister, François Fillon, or Michel Barnier, the former European commissioner and current French agriculture minister. So how much danger is Barroso in? Judging by the array of arguments they are advancing, his aides are worried. At first they pointed out that the heads of state were committed to deciding in June. That argument convinced few people since such a declaration can be changed or rendered impossible by deadlock. Then they stressed the need for stability in a difficult economic period before the Irish referendum. Hardly a clincher. Finally, they hit on the argument that if the choice of commission president is left until October, then the European parliament, which will be elected in June, will press for more influence over the appointment.
Although that may worry some governments, the key question is what does the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, think? She was bounced into an early declaration of support for Barroso via the EPP, but made it clear privately that she would have preferred to keep her options open. Now she has another chance to row back and it could prove convenient. Germany holds elections in September and although Merkel expects to lead the next government, nothing is certain in these times. It must have occurred to the German chancellor that, by October, she might be just out of office. In which case, why take a decision in June that would close off a potentially interesting alternative: Barroso's job?
The meltdown, Mussolini & McCreevy
It has taken a global crisis, but the ideas of Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's millionaire premier, are finally starting to sound almost sensible. At a summit of Europe's biggest economies in Berlin in February, Berlusconi contributed little until pressed by Merkel. Put on the spot, Berlusconi said that he was far from an expert but that the solution seemed simple: nationalise all the banks. Though there was a sharp intake of breath, the Italian prime minister for once sounded bold, radical and possibly ahead of the curve. Inevitably it was too good to last. According to one account, at a leaders' dinner later, Berlusconi repeated his idea, this time adding that the tactic had worked for Mussolini.
Meanwhile, Charlie McCreevy, the internal market commissioner who is so reluctant to press for regulation, has not been shamed into changing his ways by the financial meltdown. Each March, come hell, high water or a meeting of the European commission, McCreevy has made his pilgrimage to the races at Cheltenham. This year he didn't have to miss a college meeting but managed to draw attention to himself anyway by taking a stand on his right to attend the races. "They do that every year—they don't like me coming here," he told the Irish Times. According to the paper "they" are the "moaning Minnie plutocrats" of Brussels, a description with which McCreevy appears to agree. "All these people take their skiing holidays and winter holidays," he said. This is what I do—Cheltenham." Well, for all those who thought he does the internal market, at least that's clear.
John Grant's teeth
Two years after his departure as Britain's permanent representative to the EU, John Grant is again the talk of UKRep. Because of renovations British diplomats have temporarily vacated their offices near Rond-Point Schuman, in the process emptying a desk used by the former ambassador. Here officials discovered a full mouth mould—presumably made for Grant during dental work. Seasoned diplomats are in a quandary about what to do with a perfect replica of their former boss's mouth. But at least they now know that his bark was worse than his bite.
