It would be cynical to suggest that the conflict in Georgia has been a bit of a godsend to Nicolas Sarkozy. But the French president has had a good war so far. Hyperactive as ever, and now holding the presidency of the EU, Sarko brokered the peace deal that stopped the fighting in August. True, the Russians failed to adhere to the terms of the ceasefire, but at least they stopped their offensive. Sarko then had a second diplomatic success when he went to Moscow and extracted another promise of Russian withdrawal.
The Russian invasion produced a rare show of unity among EU heads of government, who were convened in emergency session by Sarko on 1st September. At a four-hour meeting in Brussels, the French president somehow managed to forge a common line in a meeting that included the Russophobe Polish president Lech Kaczynski and Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian premier, who likes entertaining his friend Vladimir Putin at his Sardinian villa. Sarko even got the EU leaders to sign up to an agreed line in time for the evening news bulletins.
Russia's aggression has given a new imperative to Europeans to adopt a common front or risk losing all hope of influencing the Kremlin. And relations with Russia have given France's six-month presidency of the EU a new focus, something that was badly needed after the Irish "no" vote on the Lisbon treaty in June. But the Georgia crisis may also have undermined the idea that the treaty is essential if the EU is to play a bigger role on the global stage. The creation of a more coherent foreign policy structure is one of the "important things [in Lisbon] to make the EU more effective," as David Miliband, the foreign secretary, puts it in his Prospect interview (p26). Yet the EU has been able to play a significant role over Georgia because—by chance—it was being represented by a big country, France, which just happens to hold the six-month presidency. Under Lisbon, the rotating presidency would have little or no role in foreign affairs, which would instead be delegated to a full-time EU president and foreign affairs high representative. Unless the EU could agree on a president who was both a big figure in her/her own right and from a large member state, their role could never match that of Sarko now. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has made it clear she doesn't want the job because she is likely to be re-elected at home. And Tony Blair, the only other big name candidate, has provoked much opposition because of Iraq. Supporters of the other main candidate, Jean-Claude Juncker, should ask themselves whether the Kremlin would conduct serious negotiations with the current prime minister of Luxembourg.
Follow the leader
Sarko's brand of diplomacy comes at a price, however, especially if you are Ukrainian. Following a one-day visit to Moscow and Tbilisi, Sarko was due to travel to Evian, in eastern France, for a long-planned EU-Ukraine summit. But on the eve of the meeting, the Élysée abruptly switched the venue to Paris, declaring that it was impossible for the fatigued president to travel to Evian in time for the event. Such a last-minute change of summit venue is unprecedented in recent years (although Berlusconi once curtailed an EU meeting because he wanted to attend a football match). For the Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko, the change was relatively painless, since his plane simply diverted to Paris. Not so for some of his officials from Brussels, as well as a contingent of Eurocrats, who were already in Evian.
Mandy's legacy and successor
After the failure of the Doha world trade talks in July, Peter Mandelson has been thinking about rescuing his legacy as European trade commissioner. With no global trade deal in sight, Mandy knows that history may not be flattering about his stint in Brussels. There is a chance the talks could be swiftly revived in the first half of next year once the US presidential election is out of the way—particularly if India also goes to the polls. But in case this initiative fails, Mandy is turning his attention to plan B. This would involve an agreement of some sorts among a coalition of the willing, thereby ending the multilateral basis of the trade system, in which all 153 nations of the World Trade Organisation must agree. That, at least, is the word. Though with Mandy, of course, one never knows. Such talk may be a way of applying pressure to recalcitrant nations reluctant to sign up to a global deal. So it could just be the prince of darkness's parting exercise in spin and bluff. Then again, that notion itself may be double bluff, and he may be deadly serious. Oh, we will miss Mandy.
Meanwhile, the fact that Mandelson's term is up next year has not escaped notice, and a low-level campaign is already under way to land his job. Both Baroness Scotland and Patricia Hewitt have been mentioned as replacements. But the current chief whip, Geoff Hoon, should not be counted out. Were Hoon to get the job, he could find himself the most powerful member of the Labour party—as the rest of his cabinet colleagues head for electoral oblivion.
