Sighs of relief can been heard from the 13th floor of the Berlaymont building, where the European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, has been fretting about his future. Barroso's first term expires next year and the former Portuguese prime minister wants a second go. Up until now, the main impediment to this has appeared to be the mercurial French president, Nicolas Sarkozy.
Sarko's criticisms of the commission under Barroso have been mounting, to the point where the French president was recently put on the spot at a press conference at which the two men appeared side by side. Asked if he had a candidate for the next commission president, Sarkozy replied that he did—and that he was sitting at the same table. This vote of support for Barroso was not what one would expect given the mood music emanating from Paris in the preceding weeks.
French aides had been blaming Barroso for the Irish referendum debacle, glossing over the fact that French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner's threats and accusations of Irish ingratitude in the run-up to the poll were manna from heaven for the "no" campaigners. They also pointed out that Barroso's term in office began with the French and Dutch "no" votes to the European constitution and concluded with the Irish rejection of the Lisbon treaty. The commission was, according to the critique, ignoring the everyday problems of voters as it pursued its ultra-liberal economic course.
Sarko did not go as far as to blame Barroso publicly, though he did the next best thing by attacking Peter Mandelson. The trade commissioner's handling of the Doha deal had been naive, said Sarko, who publicly suggested that Mandelson was to blame both for the Irish "no" and for contributing to starvation in the third world. Elaborating a message meant for his domestic audience, Sarkozy criticised the European Central Bank (ECB) over its interest rate policy and argued that the EU needs to give voters greater protection from the impact of globalisation.
For Sarko, who wants to make domestic economic reforms, what better cover than to bash the EU? The point has not been missed by Barroso, who has had a difficult hand to play. Failing to speak up for Mandelson would make him look absurd. And joining in the criticism of the ECB would outrage Angela Merkel, whose support for a second term he will also need. Merkel is already unhappy about Barroso's plans to liberalise energy, legislate on car emissions and enact a package of social measures.
So on the eve of the recent G8 summit in Japan, Barroso gave an interview to Brussels journalists in which he stuck by the ECB and his embattled trade commissioner. But in private, Barroso has been desperate to placate Sarko. A recent commission proposal to help fishermen hit by high fuel prices may not be unconnected to protests in France. Similarly, a proposed change in VAT law would allow Paris to lower the sales tax on restaurants—a long-standing French ambition. With the decision on Barroso's job a year off, whole swathes of the French economy could be in line for similar treatment.
The launch of Sarko's Club Med
July saw Sarkozy's launch for his Union for the Mediterranean, a new community of countries that border the Mediterranean sea. The launch in Paris was well attended by Arab leaders—odd, given that almost all of them stayed away when the ill-fated Barcelona process celebrated its tenth anniversary in 2005. The two initiatives are actually pretty similar, so what explains the different turnout?
Essentially it's Sarkozy. For example, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish premier, was reluctant to attend until he was brought on board by the French president. Diplomats expect that, when EU heads of government next tackle the issue of Turkey, France will soften its opposition and suggest that the eventual goal of talks with the country is membership. Ironic, given that the Union for the Mediterranean was seen by many as a way of keeping Turkey out of the EU.
Steelie Neelie's competition
Competition commissioner Neelie Kroes, one of the successes of the Barroso commission, also wants a second term. Kroes—nicknamed "Nickel Neelie" and "Steelie Neelie" for her toughness—has none of the polish of her Italian predecessor, Mario Monti, who could banter with journalists in three or four languages. Kroes's English is ropey and her presentational skills are as poor as those of former commission president Romano Prodi. Dutch journalists say she sounds almost as bad in her native language.
But unlike Monti, several of whose big decisions were overturned by the European court, Kroes has got most of hers right. She has been bold, increasing fines on Microsoft, for example, to around €1.5bn. And she has shaken up her directorate general—although not as much as she would like to. Kroes has been frustrated by the rigidity of the commission's structures and the limited resources at her disposal. She may be one of the most powerful regulators in the world, but her staff number only around 800. In her previous job as Dutch transport minister, Kroes had that many people looking after her country's canals.
