Veteran campaign strategists Karl Rove and Jim Carville don't agree on much, but each maintains there are three dimensions involved in the choice of vice-presidential running mate. The first is the national stage: what does the ticket need for balance; does it require an ethnic, gender, geographic or generational solution, or experience in government? The second is the state factor: which marginal state needs a local champion to deliver it? The third is the policy question: where is the presidential candidate perceived to be weakest, and who could strengthen him?
Barack Obama's perfect running mate would be a sixtyish white female war hero from Ohio, but she doesn't exist. Hillary Clinton is the nearest equivalent, but Michelle Obama goes ballistic at the idea. Obama wants to offer Clinton the Senate majority leadership, but the other Democratic senators won't play. The supreme court has been dangled, but the hearings would dredge up the mess of the Rose law firm, Hillary's employer at the time of the Whitewater controversy. Another idea is that Obama publicly offers Hillary the veep job on the condition that she graciously turns it down. Oh yes, and Chelsea Clinton gets a plum job at commerce or in the trade representative's office.
Obama needs an older white or Hispanic partner from the south or west, with a strong record in government and, ideally, military experience. That puts New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, a former energy secretary, very high on the shortlist. The need to win back Clinton's regiment of women makes Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius a possibility. Ignore those who tout Caroline Kennedy, who will deliver all the JFK symbolism needed by nominating Obama at the party convention.
But New Mexico and Kansas are small states. Obama must win the big marginals of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, and possibly Virginia and Indiana. That puts former Indiana governor Evan Bayh in the frame. It also means Virginia senator Jim Webb, a war hero who served as navy secretary under President Reagan, is a strong choice. Webb brings heavyweight national security credentials, and was against the Iraq war. Given Obama's vulnerability to McCain's status as a war hero, General Wes Clark may squeeze on to the shortlist, but he's a more likely candidate for the Pentagon.
At least one of Obama's closest advisers is suggesting he shock everyone by picking a Republican to prove he's a unifier. Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel is a telegenic and well-liked Vietnam war hero who opposed the Iraq war. Hagel is anti-abortion, but he recently endorsed Obama's line on talking with America's enemies. Tumbler is betting Webb, Richardson and Hagel, in that order.
…and for McCain
For McCain, there are four specific problems. The first is his age. He will be 72 in August, and so needs a youthful partner. The second is money: McCain is having trouble raising funds and a mega-rich running mate would help. This makes Mitt Romney, New York mayor Mike Bloomberg or eBay boss Meg Whitman look appealing. (Whitman is also being canvassed to succeed Arnie Schwarzenegger as governor of California.) The third problem is the Bush legacy, which hurts him. But if McCain distances himself too far from Bush then he runs into his fourth hurdle: the Republican conservative base. The need to please the party's evangelical Christians makes former Arkansas governor and Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee a contender. But Huckabee has no economic credentials, which is also McCain's main policy weakness.
McCain's advisers are torn between two favourites. The first is Florida governor Charlie Crist, 51. But McCain already leads in the Florida polls and conservatives grumble that Crist is soft on abortion. The second is Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, 47, a staunch McCain ally who could carry the swing state. Pawlenty wants it badly, but outside of Minnesota, few have heard of him.
McCain's wild card is Bobby Jindal, 36, the impressive new governor of Louisiana. Jindal, of Indian ancestry and Oxford-educated, is good on television and a darling of the pro-life movement, since he's against abortion even in cases of rape or incest. But when McCain and Jindal raise their hands together, it looks like a gay version of a May-December marriage. And then there is the race problem. Louisiana whites had the chance to get to know Jindal and overcome their prejudices before voting for him. There may not be time for this in other southern states, where McCain needs to hold almost all of the white vote.
LBJ's unheeded advice
While Dick Cheney and Al Gore have transformed the image of the vice-presidency, the next president may not allow another high-profile role. All veep hopefuls should listen to Lyndon Johnson's White House tapes, and in particular his chat in 1964 with his assistant Robert Shriver (JFK's brother-in-law). LBJ said, "A man [who] runs for vice-president is a very foolish man. I wished I'd run further away from it than I did… don't you ever be a candidate." But the advice was ignored; Shriver went on to join the ill-starred George McGovern ticket in 1972.
