Speculation over who is to become the first president of the European council has obscured the emergence of the likely new foreign policy supremo of the EU, Massimo D'Alema. A former Italian prime minister and, until the Italian elections on 13th April, foreign minister, D'Alema covets the EU job and is confident that even if his opponent Silvio Berlusconi wins the election, he will have Rome's backing for the EU post.
Having survived the Machiavellian world of Italian politics, D'Alema is well equipped for the snake pit that is EU foreign policy-making. His nationality stands him in good stead because Italy is one of Europe's four biggest nations but not one of its top two military powers. The thinking is that to give the job to a candidate from France or Britain would be inappropriate, since these countries already have a big say in foreign policy.
Carl Bildt, the Swedish foreign minister, also fancies himself for the post. But Bildt has a distinct lack of friends and a reputation as a smart alec. "He has forthright views and is clever," says one seasoned observer, "and unfortunately that makes him very unpopular."
Bildt's other problem is that he comes from the political right. With three EU jobs up for grabs at around the same time next year—council president, commission president and high representative for foreign affairs—there is pressure from MEPs for at least one to go to the left. The right has several strong candidates. José Manuel Barroso is almost a shoo-in for a second term at the commission. All the leading contenders for council president—including Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, Ireland's Bertie Ahern and, were she to want it, Germany's Angela Merkel—are from the right, except for Tony Blair. But Blair is, to put it mildly, unlikely to get the backing of Europe's socialist parties. The Danish premier, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, is a liberal but has relied on parliamentary support from the far right before. By contrast, the left is bereft of good candidates.
The main obstacle for D'Alema may come from the man currently running EU foreign policy, Javier Solana. Though Solana has toured the globe tirelessly schmoozing leaders, there is a consensus that his time is up. The job has noticeably aged him, and he has little to show for all the air miles. The new post of high representative will involve setting up an EU diplomatic service. And whatever Solana's strengths are, management of staff is not one of them.
Most diplomats expect Solana to be given the post for six months from January 2009 until a permanent replacement is selected in June, alongside the new European commission president. That way, he could mind the shop for a while, and then make way gracefully for a new regime. But Solana seems to see things differently, and has been muttering about getting a proper mandate.
Please don't take our cars away
As the economic outlook worsens, there was growing concern at the recent EU leaders' summit in Brussels about the self-imposed targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. One year ago, under Germany's presidency, the EU agreed to cut CO2 emissions by one fifth on 1990 levels by 2020. This time, Merkel extracted guarantees to protect heavy industry in the event that other trading blocs fail to sign up to similar climate change plans. But less well noticed was another rebellion by the member states.
An early draft of the March 2008 summit conclusions proclaimed that the European council recognised "that addressing energy and climate change is also a matter of shaping values and changing citizens' behaviour." It therefore urged national governments and European institutions "to set an example by making substantial progress towards reducing energy use in their buildings and car fleets by 10 per cent by 2013 compared to 2008 levels." But even if the fate of the planet is at stake, giving up ministerial cars is plainly a sacrifice too far. When the final version of the text was agreed, the 10 per cent target had been removed. So why did Slovenia, current president of the EU, drop the pledge? Apparently no fewer than 20 of the 27 EU nations protested.
Sarkozy's club med
A truce has been declared in the battle between Paris and Berlin over Nicolas Sarkozy's plans for a new union with Mediterranean countries. The proposals had infuriated Angela Merkel because they involved creating a new body linking the non-EU nations of the Med in north Africa and the middle east with the EU's southern states, which clearly do not include Germany.
Berlin's line is that the final compromise anchors the initiative within the EU. In fact, Sarkozy won the right to create a small secretariat and two presidents, one drawn from the non-European countries and the other initially from the EU's southern nations. His real challenge will be making this work. Getting Syria, Libya and Israel—who ought to be members of Sarko's Club Med—to agree on a president will take some diplomacy. The most pressing question for Sarkozy is how to persuade Arab leaders to attend the opening jamboree planned for Paris in July.
