Washington watch

Could Puerto Rico's delegates decide the Democratic nomination? Clinton's strategy to win the super-delegates. Plus, McCain's foreign policy adviser greybeards
April 26, 2008
Puerto Rico, my heart's devotion

The Democratic race for delegates is so close that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have to start mugging up on the small Caribbean island of Puerto Rico, which has been a US possession since the 1898 Spanish-American war. While the island is known as a "commonwealth" in English, in Spanish it is an estado libre asociado, which means "associated free state." Its motto is, strangely, Juan es su nombre (John is his name).

More Puerto Ricans live on the US mainland (where they can vote in presidential elections) than on the island (where they can't). The island's 4m inhabitants hold US citizenship, but Puerto Rico is a self-governing commonwealth rather than a state. Yet it has a primary, on 1st June, and the 55 elected delegates (more than 26 of the US states get) and eight super-delegates could be decisive in the Democratic race. The governor, Anibal Acevedo-Vilà, is for Obama, but party chairman Roberto Prats Palerm backs Clinton. Though Clinton generally wins Hispanic votes, Prats Palerm notes "we Puerto Ricans don't think of ourselves as Hispanics." There are also many young voters, which bodes well for Obama.

The candidates will have to decide where they stand on the issue of Puerto Rico's constitutional future, a subject that drives grown men to tears. The Bush administration said recently that the island is a non-incorporated territory subject to the plenary powers of the US congress under the "territorial clause" of article IV of the US constitution. If that is so, replied Puerto Rico's elected governor, "then for over 50 years the US government has perpetuated a 'monumental hoax,'" because during that time the island has acted as a free associated state.

The real choices for the island are independence, incorporation into the US as a state or keeping the status quo. The last time the islanders were asked to vote, in 1998, only 2.5 per cent plumped for independence. A mere 0.3 per cent wanted to keep the status quo, while 46.7 per cent voted for statehood. The winner, with 50.5 per cent, was "none of the above," a historic victory for irony entirely in keeping with the island's raffish charm.

To add to the confusion, the Democratic national committee thought the Puerto Rican primary was on 7th June, and was therefore the last one. But that was a mistake, caused by a typo in a letter from the Puerto Rican Democrats. Montana and South Dakota have the last primaries on 3rd June, two days after the island.

Holding out for a miracle

It is almost impossible for Clinton to catch Obama in delegates. Even if she does well in Pennsylvania on 22nd April, North Carolina and Oregon in May look good for Obama. Clinton may take small states Kentucky and West Virginia, but Indiana will be a battleground. The popular senator Evan Bayh is campaigning for Clinton, but the state has a large black population and its north is served by the pro-Obama Chicago television stations. Clinton needs either a miracle, or the sudden realisation among super-delegates that Obama's wins have been mainly in traditionally Republican states that are unlikely to vote Democrat in November.

Harold Ickes's delicate problem

Harold Ickes, a veteran Democratic fixer who was brought in to save Clinton's campaign, has a delicate problem. How do you make a racist point to the super-delegates without being accused of racism? Ickes has a report that shows that, of the 30 primaries and caucuses for which there is exit poll data, Clinton won the white vote in 23. So far the report isn't in circulation, but heavy hints are being dropped in the hope that the media will do the dirty work for the campaign. ABC's Good Morning America may bite—the programme was the first to run those clips of Reverend Jeremiah Wright, pastor of Obama's church, saying "God damn America for treating its citizens as less than human" and talking about the "US of KKK A."

Obama's economic credentials

Now that Obama has lost his foreign policy aide Samantha Power—for calling Clinton "a monster"—and his economic adviser Austan Goolsbee has left Canadian diplomats with the impression that Obama wasn't really going to ditch Nafta, his team looks less than ready. But Obama does have a heavyweight adviser on economics: former Fed chairman Paul Volcker, now 80. Volcker is famous for the squeeze that wrung inflation out of the system with the 1979-81 recession, and thus less than popular with voters with long memories. Obama was saving Volcker's unveiling for the big match against John McCain. But if the slump deepens, expect Volcker to come out hailing Obama's economic credentials.

McCain's foreign policy greybeards

We're in for a trip down memory lane this autumn as McCain targets his big guns at Obama's foreign policy inexperience. Henry Kissinger (84), General Alexander Haig (83), former secretaries of state Lawrence Eagleburger (77) and George Shultz (87) have all signed up with McCain, along with Nixon's old defence secretary James Schlesinger (79). McCain thinks their wisdom is an asset, but their average age is 81, which Obama should be able to turn to his advantage.