Economics

The Autumn Statement did not happen

Voters don't think any mainstream party will improve their lives, and Wednesday didn't change that

December 05, 2014
Protestors from the People's Assembly wear George Osborne masks on a marchin London. © Anthony Devlin/PA Wire/Press Association Images
Protestors from the People's Assembly wear George Osborne masks on a marchin London. © Anthony Devlin/PA Wire/Press Association Images

The Autumn Statement did not happen.

That’s obviously absurd in economic and fiscal terms. Banks and the owners of expensive homes know only too well that the Chancellor stung them on Wednesday. But in political terms it was a non-event. YouGov asked a series of before-and-after questions for the Sun, and found that the main indicators failed to budge. Voters who applauded the coalition’s attempt to reduce the deficit still do so; those who deplore the failure of living standards to recover, remain critical of George Osborne and his policies.

This means that the Chancellor has done nothing to dispel a widespread pessimism about the years ahead. Indeed, this pessimism is perhaps the most crucial component of the public mood as we head towards election year. A separate post-autumn-statement poll for The Times finds that only 21 per cent expect to be better off in five years’ time if the Conservatives win next May. And if there’s a Labour government? A similar, alarmingly low, figure: 19 per cent. With both parties, the proportion expecting to be worse off is far higher: 42 per cent in each case.

This confirms what previous YouGov polls have found: that neither main party has either a widely-believed strategy, or even a relative advantage over the other, for improving living standards. No wonder minority parties—UKIP, SNP and the Greens—are doing so well.

However, on other aspects of the economy, the Tories retain a clear lead. More people have confidence in the Conservatives than Labour to improve the prospects for British business, and to make “the country as a whole” better off over the next five years.

This helps to explain why David Cameron and George Osborne are more trusted than Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, by 42-26 per cent, to run the economy. The Tory duo has always been ahead; in fact their 16-point lead is, just, the highest that YouGov has recorded.

Which is why the absence of any dramatic public reaction to the Autumn Statement is good news for the Conservatives. Labour will enter election year lagging badly on both economic competence and the personal appeal of the rival party leaders. There have been times when an opposition has won an election when it has been behind on the economy or leadership. There has been no election that an opposition has won when it has been behind on both. This week provided Labour with one of its last, best chances to persuade voters that it is as competent as—or no less incompetent than—the coalition. The initial public reaction suggests it has failed to close the gap on this vital measure.