With Christmas rapidly approaching, and 2018 just round the corner, it is time to down tools and consider some lessons from the world of economics this year. You might spend your Christmas eve watching the Festival of Nine Lessons and Carols at King’s College, Cambridge. To keep it seasonal, I’ve gone for nine lessons here, too.
So how did the economy perform, and what are the takeaways?
- Global growth was more solid and synchronised than expected
The International Monetary Fund’s October forecasts suggested that after 3.6 per cent in 2017—roughly the same as the average from 1990-2007—global growth momentum will roll over into 2018. But watch out. We normally have a business cycle downturn every 10 years or so, and the last one was in 2009. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
- The US expansion is going for gold
The consequences for the fiscal deficit—possibly over $1 trillion of lost tax revenues over the coming decade—inflation, interest rates, and eventually welfare when the tax cuts have to be paid for, are for another day. Will that day come before July 2019? Stay tuned.
- China’s acid test is coming
The acid test will come in 2018 when we shall see if the government has the stomach to sustain tighter financial conditions in the face of slower and perhaps more volatile growth. Now that President Xi Jinping has been more or less deified by the Communist Party and the centralisation of power around him is stifling the institutions of government, constraint and consensus, the risks and consequences of policy errors are significantly higher.
- Brexit: fear turned into fantasy
Now, instead of fear, we have fantasy—of “Global Britain,” or a 19th century throwback to when England ruled the world and trade was on terms we largely dictated. Brexiteers in all parties still think we can “have our cake and it eat it.” It’s not possible, as recognised in the recent agreement reached by the UK and the EU. Yet the fantasy lives on. By Autumn 2018—a few months before we are due to leave the EU according to Article 50—we should know if the fantasy has been appropriately bottled, or not.
- Politics didn’t rock the economics
Yet complacency would be wrong. We are in a fight involving concentrations of wealth, income and industrial power at home, and a vacuum in global power politics. Stanford-based historian, Walter Scheidel argues that extremes of income and wealth distribution have been unwound by war, revolution, state collapse, or pandemics. This may be unduly alarmist, but few would say he’s completely wrong.
- Investors had a good year
Can this continue into 2018? Professional investors are anxious about elevated valuations, and it might not take much bad news to lead to a big downturn in asset prices. It does all look bubbly, and the trick, as always, is to get out before the rush if you are able.
- Trump is bad for trade
The Administration is considering implementing tariffs against Chinese steel and aluminium exports, as well as measures against China related to abuse of intellectual property rights. More generally, Trump has vacated the leadership role when it comes to world trade and investment governance, and allowed the US to distance itself from the World Trade Organisation and its core dispute settlement procedure.
We will be lucky if 2018 comes and goes without a deterioration in both US-China trade and global trade relationships.
- Austerity is over. Long live austerity
But if instead we still want to lower fiscal deficits in better economic times, and lower the burden of debt in the economy in the future when demographics, for example, are pushing it up, austerity will continue. Governments will need new tax revenues, and a broader tax base. Expect more on this in 2018.
- Productivity matters
We all know that productivity matters, and wages, living standards and tax revenues all depend on it, but the reasons for low productivity, and what to do about it remain opaque. We are talking about a potpourri of causes including investment, over-regulation, the need to upgrade education and skill attainment, the lingering effects of credit booms that stifle productivity growth and misallocate resources, and possibly even a mismeasurement of productivity.
Knowing why productivity is in a funk is an important step in trying to re-energise it. The politicians that listen to the best advice and grasp the nettle on how to solve the problem will probably inherit the earth.
… And on that note, a very happy Christmas to everyone.