This marks the 103rd month of US economic expansion. Is the country due a recession?by George Magnus / January 8, 2018 / Leave a comment
President Trump was busy last week, falling out with one-time confidant and adviser Steve Bannon, and failing to stop the publication of Michael Wolff’s new bestseller Fire and Fury. 2018 could be a long year for this unpopular president if investigations into obstruction of justice gain traction, while Democrats are salivating about electoral prospects in congressional elections in November. Last week, though, he still found time to boast that the Dow Jones surge through 25,000 and record levels reached in US equity markets were down to him, and his focus on “jobs, jobs, jobs” and “making America great again.”
For the moment, he can certainly crow about the US economy, even though the momentum that returned to economic growth during 2017 happened regardless of his Administration. Economic growth picked up to a little over 3 per cent per annum in the spring, and stayed there through the summer. By the end of last year, it might have edged towards 3.5-4 per cent, though we should note that the renewed widening US trade deficit late last year will act as a drag on reported GDP growth.