Why Murray is going to lose

A predictable wave of patriotism has attended Andy Murray's serene progress through this year's Australian Open, and there seems to be a growing expectation that Britain is finally set to have a grand slam winner. But the inconvenient truth is that Murray is almost certainly going to lose. Why do I think this? Bias is probably a factor. I am a Federer fan, and so (unpatriotically) I don't want Murray to win. Don't get me wrong: I would like him to win a grand slam, I'd just rather he didn't do it at Federer's expense.

But even if bias is removed from the equation, I still think, objectively, Federer is the overwhelming favourite. Murray is undoubtedly playing extremely well, but I haven't seen anything in his game over the past two weeks to make me think it has changed significantly enough. In terms of their head-to-head record, it's true, Murray has the edge over Federer—he has beaten the Swiss six times, while Federer has beaten him on only four occasions. However, Federer made a revealing comment a couple of months ago, shortly before playing Murray (and winning) at the end of year ATP tour finals tournament in London. "It's up to me whether I beat Murray," he said.



What he meant by this is that if his attacking game is fully functioning, Murray simply doesn't have the weapons to cope with it—even if he is playing at his best. And I think this is true. Federer on top form is just a better player than Murray. He is more dangerous, and Murray (unlike Nadal) lacks the weapons to knock him of his stride. The Scotsman has played more aggressively during this tournament than he often has done in the past, and that has certainly made a difference in the earlier rounds. But even a very aggressive Murray will be out-hit by a very aggressive Federer.

All this depends on Federer playing his best, or near his best, and there's a chance that he won't—in which case Murray will have it. But Federer has been quite superb this tournament—in my view, it's the best he's played for the last three years. And I can't see his standard dropping in the final. My prediction: Federer to win in three (possibly four) sets.