• Home
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Date/Time
  • Login
  • Subscribe

logo

  • Home
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
Home
  • Home
  • Blogs
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
  • Home

Peter Kellner

The Pollster

How to conduct a Greening referendum

Having three options on the ballot paper is even more complicated than it sounds

by Peter Kellner / July 16, 2018 / Leave a comment
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

Former Education Secretary Justine Greening. Photo: David Mirzoeff/PA Wire/PA Images

Justine Greening has come out in favour of a People’s Vote—but with a twist. Instead of a binary choice—say, compromise deal versus no Brexit—she wants voters to judge three options: no Brexit, compromise or hard Brexit.

It would certainly be novel. Other countries have occasionally held multi-choice referendums; but these have generally been first-past-the post choices, such as when Australia picked Advance Australia Fair as its national song in 1977. What Greening wants is for voters to give their first and second choices. If none of the options wins 50 per cent support, the least popular option would be eliminated, and the second choices of its supporters counted.

There is nothing intrinsically wrong in constitutional innovation. However, Greening’s proposal raises an important question of democratic choice when more than two options are on the table. In short, how do we measure which is most popular when none of the options wins 50 per cent of first preference votes?

Here is one scenario. It is emphatically not a prediction but it is, I believe, plausible. Suppose this is how the UK votes in a Greening referendum

No Brexit: 38 per cent (Second preferences: Compromise 30 per cent, Hard Brexit 8 per cent)

Compromise deal: 30 per cent (Second preferences: Hard Brexit 20 per cent, No Brexit 10 per cent)

Hard Brexit: 32 per cent (Second preferences: Compromise 25 per cent, No Brexit 7 per cent)

Here are three ways the nation’s choice could be calculated.

First-past-the-post: No Brexit has the most votes, so the UK stays in the European Union

Alternative vote: The compromise is the least popular option. Its supporters’ second preferences are counted. No Brexit gains an extra 10 per cent; added to its first-choice 38 per cent, it ends up with 48 per cent. Hard Brexit gains 20 per cent; added to its first-choice 32 per cent, it climbs to 52 per cent. The UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Condorcet winner. This is named after the Marquis de Condorcet, who proposed that the winner of a multi-choice contest should be one that is the final head-to-head winner of every pair of choices. Let us apply this to our example:

 

No Brexit v hard Brexit. As we have seen, if we eliminate the…

YOU’VE HIT THE LIMIT

You have now reached your limit of 3 free articles in the last 30 days.
But don’t worry! You can get another 7 articles absolutely free, simply by entering your email address in the box below.

When you register we’ll also send you a free e-book—Writing with punch—which includes some of the finest writing from our archive of 22 years. And we’ll also send you a weekly newsletter with the best new ideas in politics and philosophy of culture, which you can of course unsubscribe from at any time







Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

8076807565df19e2510cf43.41556808

Go to comments

Related articles

Brexit and the UK’s grossly irresponsible attempt to export its own problems
Kenneth Armstrong / June 28, 2019
The exit process from Europe was designed specifically to prevent this from happening
Corbyn’s Brexit “strategy” will not survive contact with an election
Rachel Sylvester / September 19, 2019
The Labour leader’s stubborn refusal to take sides on the biggest question of the day...
Share with friends
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

Comments

No comments yet

Prospect's free newsletter

The big ideas that are shaping our world—straight to your inbox. PLUS a free e-book and 7 articles of your choosing on the Prospect website.

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information. Click here to learn more about these purposes and how we use your data. You will be able to opt-out of further contact on the next page and in all our communications.

This Month's Magazine

Perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus.

Inside the choice facing voters this General Election—and why the commission that regulates our democracy is struggling to keep up. Plus: Clive James on Wittgenstein, and the real story of Corbynism

Subscribe

Most Popular

  • Read
  • Commented

The sinister threat to human rights buried in the Conservative manifesto

The weather won't affect Thursday's general election result—or will it?

Rebels with a cause: can Dominic Grieve and Anne Milton triumph on Thursday?

"Men are trash": the surprisingly philosophical story behind an internet punchline

Ivan Rogers on Brexit: the worst is yet to come

3 Comments

John le Carré's post-Cold War vision is shot through with a sense of longing

2 Comments

How dare those signed up to hard Brexit lecture Labour on the economy?

2 Comments

Could this psychological theory explain why we’ll never let Brexit go?

1 Comments

Remembering Ella Bergmann-Michel, an artist who showed how fascism lurks in the everyday

1 Comments

About this author

Peter Kellner
Peter Kellner is former President of YouGov and a political analyst and commentator
More by this author

More by Peter Kellner

Labour conference: a “staging post” on the way to a people’s vote?
September 18, 2018
Do centrists know how to count?
September 10, 2018
Right now, Theresa May’s best friend is Boris Johnson
August 9, 2018

Next Prospect events

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club - David Lammy

    London, 2020-03-19

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club - Jack Shenker

    2020-02-17

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club - Amelia Gentleman

    2020-01-27

See more events

Sponsored features

  • Delivering the UK's invisible infrastructure project

  • Future of Aid: the full report

  • A forest fund for the future

  • A new humanitarianism for the modern age

  • The future of sustainable economic development

PrimeTime

The magazine is owned and supported by the Resolution Group, as part of its not-for-profit, public interest activities.

Follow us
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google+
  • RSS

Editorial

Editor: Tom Clark
Deputy Editor: Steve Bloomfield
Managing Editor (Arts & Books): Sameer Rahim
Head of Digital: Stephanie Boland
Digital Assistant: Rebecca Liu
Production Editor & Designer: Chris Tilbury
Commissioning Editor: Alex Dean
Creative Director: Mike Turner
US Writer-at-Large: Sam Tanenhaus

Commercial

Commercial Director: Alex Stevenson
Head of Marketing: Paul Mortimer
Marketing and Circulation Executive: Susan Acan
Head of Events: Victoria Jackson
Events Project Manager: Nadine Prospere
Head of Advertising Sales: Adam Kinlan 020 3372 2934
Senior Account Manager: Patrick Lappin 020 3372 2931
Head of Finance and Resources: David de Lange

  • Home
  • Advertising
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Acceptable Use Policy
© Prospect Publishing Limited
×
Login
Login with your subscriber account:
You need a valid subscription to login.
I am
Remember Me


Forgotten password?

Or enter with social networking:
Login to post comments using social media accounts.
  • With Twitter
  • Connect
  • With Google +
×
Register Now

Register today and access any 7 articles on the Prospect’s website for FREE in the next 30 days..
PLUS find out about the big ideas that will shape our world—with Prospect’s FREE newsletter sent to your inbox. We'll even send you our e-book—Writing with punch—with some of the finest writing from the Prospect archive, at no extra cost!

Not Now, Thanks

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

×
You’ve got full access!

It looks like you are a Prospect subscriber.

Prospect subscribers have full access to all the great content on our website, including our entire archive.

If you do not know your login details, simply close this pop-up and click 'Login' on the black bar at the top of the screen, then click 'Forgotten password?', enter your email address and press 'Submit'. Your password will then be emailed to you.

Thank you for your support of Prospect and we hope that you enjoy everything the site has to offer.

This site uses cookies to improve the user experience. By using this site, you agree that we can set and use these cookies. For more details on the cookies we use and how to manage them, see our Privacy and Cookie Policy.