At 9:23pm on election night an announcement came over the PA that something unusual was projected in the exit polls. The press room emptied. The most respected Israeli exit polls are conducted by television companies, which set up mock voting booths at 60 stations around Israel. “We are in for some surprises,” the announcer said. At 10pm the exit poll numbers came through. One thing was not a surprise. Netanyahu’s Likud-Beiteinu party had polled the highest number of seats, with 31. It was lower than most had anticipated. Polls during the campaign had ranged from a low of 32 to a high of 40. But even with this low showing, the arithmetic of the exit polls amounted to Netanyahu’s right block taking 61 seats and the left 59. Bibi had won. This much was expected. The surprise came from the second-placed candidate. Yair Lapid, leader of the centre right Yesh Atid party, had come in second with 19 seats. Lapid is new to Israeli politics. So are all of his MPs. Lapid is a former television presenter, square-jawed, handsome, prone to wearing a bomber jacket. He lives in an affluent suburb in northern Tel Aviv and his appeal lies with the middle class: the small business owners, the army reservists. The dominant message of his campaign has been that of “sharing the burden,” a phrase that indicates his intention to make the ultra-orthodox community serve in the army and enter the job market, which, due to a long-standing deal made in 1948 with the then prime minister David Ben Gurion, they presently do not do. He also stands for electoral and political reform including shrinking the size of the cabinet, which he regards as bloated. The Yesh Atid post election rally was held at an art gallery in central Tel Aviv. The crowd was very different to the crowd at the Likud event: younger, informally dressed—and happier too. There was a raucous atmosphere and when Lapid left the building, he was surrounded by a phalanx of cameras, lights and cheering fans. Lapid’s success is being seen as a shift to the centre in Israeli politics. This runs counter to much of the commentary in the run-up to this election, which concentrated its gaze on the charismatic Naftali Bennett, the far-right leader of the Jewish Home party. Bennett garnered 12 seats, a decent showing; but unlike Bennett, Lapid’s votes seem to have come from across the spectrum. Lapid’s campaign did not stray much into foreign affairs and in this he was not unusual. But he clearly is going to have a strong influence on Israeli foreign policy, including on the question of Iran’s nuclear programme and the failed Palestinian peace process. It is not yet possible to say what that influence might be, although he indicated on the campaign trail that he feels that a resolution with the Palestinians is important. Israeli coalitions can take up to 45 days to assemble and the immediate reaction among Israeli pundits was that Lapid’s success will take Netanyahu’s new government to the centre. His party will be the second largest member of a coalition and will command an influence that will more than offset the influence of Bennett, who has seven fewer seats. At the Yesh Atid party Yaakov Peri, the former head of the General Security Service and number five on Lapid's candidate list, was surrounded. "I refuse to speculate on any coalition,” he said. "We will deliver on our promises." And would his party be willing to negotiate with Palestinians over peace? "The last poll says that people are for settlement with Palestinians." One sticking point during coalition negotiations may be the two ultra-orthodox parties, Shas and the United Torah Judaism Party, which the exit polls put at around 12 and six seats respectively. Both parties are committed to Netanyahu and will be part of his coalition. But the sector of Israeli society that they represent will not be pleased by Lapid’s success, or his influence. If Lapid pushes through his policy to force them into the army and the job market, they will resist. In the negotiations, Lapid’s demands may be watered down, and analysts have suggested that a concession might be made whereby changes to the ultra-orthodox situation are phased in gradually. But this might in turn open Lapid to criticism from his own side—he does not want to earn an early reputation for compromising. Netanyahu’s attitude to these results is hard to gauge. If these exit polls are correct, and no surprises lurk in the final count, then the outcome will be a Netanyahu-led coalition, more centrist than expected, in which his more hawkish Likud colleagues may be diminished. In his last government Netanyahu had 42 seats. Today, Israel woke up to what might be a 60-60 tie between right and left. Netanyahu has two new, untested partners in Lapid and Bennett. A headline in Haaretz put it best: "Bibi plummets to victory."
