Tomas Hirst
Russian swagger: turning off the pipes
News that Russia has suspended oil shipments to Belarus should give the rest of Europe cause for concern. It shows that more than ever before the country is willing to use its commodities leverage to ensure cooperation, even of its allies.
The collapse of commodities prices in July 2008 illustrated the true vulnerability of the Russian economic growth story: in the second half of 2008 the price of crude oil fell from almost $150 a barrel to under $33 a barrel, forcing the government to take a huge chunk out of its currency reserves to stave off a rouble collapse.
While the fall was almost catastrophic, it appears to have done little to dampen Russia’s swagger, which is riding comfortably once more following the sharp snapback of commodities prices. Like the gas dispute between Russia and the Ukraine in January 2009, Belarus is a further example of the negotiating technique employed by the Putin government—a stark warning that the country is once again willing to rile friend and foe alike to achieve its goals.
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Tomas Hirst
Russia's powerful prime minister has more to gain from keeping Medvedev in tow
Following Vladimir Putin’s annual call-in session, a veritable flurry of articles have appeared effectively declaring his candidacy for the 2012 presidential election. Yet I still feel that this is unlikely.
As journalists looking at Russia from our western pedestal, it’s all too easy to see intrigue and infighting without having to try (or think) too hard. “Look!” we say, “Putin won’t deny that he’s going to run.” And in the umbrella-stabbing world of intrigue that is Russian politics this surely means he’s going for President Dmitri Medvedev’s jugular.
Yet here’s a more pertinent question to ask: why would he declare himself out of an election that is still, in terms of recent developments in the Russian political landscape, an age away? He is the most powerful politician in the country, and singlehandedly (sorry Dmitri) drove the party United Russia to victory in the parliamentary elections last year. Without him, or faced with the prospect of being without him come 2012, his party’s position, along with the president’s, would be greatly weakened. And as history has shown, perceived weakness and division is nearly always punished by democratic electorates.
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Tomas Hirst
Demonstrations for NTV independence in Moscow, March 2001
Independent media organisations in Russia have faced a long and bitter struggle since they were forged in the chaos of the 1990s. Now, however, despite their efforts, they are the closest they have ever been to being silenced.
I am not talking about the operations of western media outlets in Russia over the past two decades, a boom which has seen Dow Jones, Reuters and Bloomberg newswires flourish. Foreign language newspapers such as the Moscow Times and the St Petersburg Times have also been established and largely treated with ambivalence by the Kremlin.
The point, of which the current Russian administration is acutely aware, is that they are not Russian businesses aimed at Russian people. While Hollywood has penetrated the cultural life of the country, the foreign news media is treated with distrust or even hostility. Read more »
Tomas Hirst
Cult leader: the long process of de-Stalinization continues
We need to stop talking about political divisions in the heart of United Russia, and appreciate that Dmitry Medvedev’s speech against Stalin-era crimes is a truly brave step.
A brief visit to Red Square might leave many in the West confused; Stalin’s tomb, separated from Lenin’s only eight years after his death, remains one of the best decorated with tokens from his still enamoured supporters.
Let us not underestimate the scale to which he is still revered in the country. In December last year Josef Stalin was voted the third most popular Russian in a nationwide poll conducted on state television.
Seen by the West as a puppet of the former president and current prime minister, Vladimir Putin, Medvedev’s touching on a subject as sensitive as the heritage of such an emotive figure might seem alien to such a definition.
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Jonathan Power
Igor Yurgens: a man with Medvedev's ear
As Dmitri Medvedev’s economic advisor, Igor Yurgens is probably one of the most influential men in the Kremlin.
A liberal by disposition, he runs his own think tank giving him the intellectual firepower to influence the president. Yurgens was involved with clearing the path for Medvedev to be interviewed by Novaya Gazeta, the remarkably brave newspaper which used to employ Anna Politkovskaya.
In my conversation with Yurgens, we talked about Georgia. Last August, Russia defeated Georgian forces which had precipitated an unnecessary war by invading the pro-Russian mini state of South Ossetia. I’ve long maintained that although Russia was acting within its rights in repulsing the unprovoked Georgian attack, it used a sledge hammer to kill a wasp. The Russian military used tactics that not only overwhelmed the Georgian army, but also created widespread destruction and civilian suffering. They seemed to be unnecessarily brutal. I put this to Yurgens. Read more »
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