Ben Simon
Soldiers leaving Congo: an end to the small glimmer of hope for the region?
In a web exclusive for Prospect last month, I wrote that decades-long animosity between the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Uganda seemed to have abated, as Congolese president Joseph Kabila allowed the armies of his east African neighbours to tackle rebel groups using Congo as a base. This cooperation was unprecedented, and so it seemed possible there was a chance for real and permanent change in a region crippled by a seemingly endless sequence of rebel insurgencies.
That hope may now be fading. The Rwandan army retreated from DR Congo last month having achieved very little, with the important exception of the arrest of Tutsi rebel leader Laurent Nkunda. The stated purpose of the mission was to deal with the Hutu rebels (the FDLR). Little is known about what actions the Rwandans took in Congo, but it appears they have had not succeeded in weakening the FDLR, who seem to have suffered few casualties. It is likely they remain well armed, in full control of numerous mineral rich mines, and a potential menace.
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Mary Fitzgerald
Will peace be strangled by politics?
As President Obama’s new envoy to the middle east George Mitchell grapples with the fearsome task of negotiating peace between Israel and the Palestinians, he’s also going to have to contend with the rivalries of Arab regional players, writes Paul Raymond. A radical wing of Arab states, newly emboldened by a round of Qatar-sponsored diplomacy, could make his job very difficult. Only through understanding the tangled nuances of Arab regional politics (something the previous US regime failed to do), will Mitchell ever be able to negotiate a lasting peace for Israelis and Palestinians.
Tangled regional politics also loom large in Ben Simon’s report from Uganda this week. In the past couple of months Uganda, Rwanda and Congo, formerly bitter rivals, have finally started to work together to oust the rebels that have been causing havoc across their borders for years. There are signs that their efforts are working: on 22nd January eastern Congolese rebel leader Laurent Nkunda was captured in a joint military operation, and rebel forces in the north of Congo are also on the back foot. But will the three countries be able to trust each other long enough to make any real difference?
Ben Simon
In the dock: Laurent Nkunda
Many will have been surprised to have learned of the Congolese rebel leader Laurent Nkunda’s arrest last Thursday; most of all probably Nkunda himself. He was arrested late on Thursday night in a joint operation involving Congolese and Rwandan troops, and is being held in Gisenyi, a resort town on Lake Kivu bordering Goma, a city he nearly captured just a few months ago.
There are many versions of the story surrounding his capture. The Congolese army announced that he was arrested in Rwanda, after trying to fight the advancing Congolese and Rwandan armies. The UN said he was arrested in Congo, and that there was no fighting. Bertrand Bisimwe, spokesman for Nkunda’s rebel group, dismissed both stories, claiming Nkunda had entered Rwanda for a meeting with Rwandan officials, and was nabbed—or tricked—in the process.
But one thing is clear: Rwanda, in one of the most dramatic policy reversals in recent memory, has turned on a man it had backed for years.
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James Crabtree
Anyone fancy a Chinese?
Coverage of the current rumblings in the eastern Congo has concentrated, understandably, on perceived ethnic tensions between different groups. Rebel general Luaren Nkunda, a clever, charistmatic and well equiped fighter, is sympathetic to the Tutsi groups in his patch, many of whom fled over the border from Rwanda in the aftermath of the mid-1990s genocide. In the area are also rumoured to be those directly responsible for the genocide itself, also have fleed from Rwanda. And so the reporting of the conflict quickly becomes lost in an ethnic soup. But, behind this, argues Prospect’s lead opinion this month, another, simpler cause is visible: China. Much as in the early part of the 20th century, when Belgian colonials stripped the area for mineral wealth, today China is investing heavily. The conflict is ultimately about who gets a cut of the investment. Tim Butcher explains how, and why, here.
James Crabtree
Its deadline day here in the Prospect office, and we are all breaking the very slightest of sweats to get the magazine finished – so our apologises if the blog is a little light on traffic. Our next edition, though, will feature a strong lead opinion from Tim Butcher on the current crisis in Congo, which has been rattling on for the last few weeks. The coverage has, as Butcher argues, largely misunderstood the genesis of the fighting between what passes for a Government, and the Rwandan-backed rebels of General Laurent Nkundu. The focus has, perhaps unsurprisingly, been on the complex ethnic tensions Tutsi and Hutu tribes; a frame informed, arguably, by Western guilt over the genocide in neighbouring Rwanda. Butcher, though, sees other, more pecuniary causes. Anyhow, learning more about Tim, I came across this video, part of the material for his (apparently excellent) book Blood River. It’s a fascinating insight into the country, and worth a watch. In it, Tim appears to travel through large stretches of Congo – one of the world’s largest countries – on a motorbike, with only a fierce pygmy as his guide. Click on the picture to see it, and check out Butcher’s piece in next month’s Prospect.
Home Videos, Congo style
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