Politics

In Wales, things are just getting interesting

"The country provides a critical test of how a small nation can cope with global pressures"

May 18, 2016
First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones arrives to cast his vote at the polling station in Westward Community Centre, Bridgend ©Joe Giddens/PA Wire/Press Association Images
First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones arrives to cast his vote at the polling station in Westward Community Centre, Bridgend ©Joe Giddens/PA Wire/Press Association Images
Read more: What Carwyn Jones can teach Jeremy Corbyn

After May’s local elections, the media focused on the two big winners: Sadiq Khan and Nicola Sturgeon. But then a spotlight shone unexpectedly on Wales, which is usually ignored. There was party deadlock in Cardiff Bay after Ukip captured seven assembly seats in strongly pro-European territory, and Labour faced losing control of its one government. In the end, Wales—not the multiethnic metropolis nor separatist Scotland—may prove the better guide to our future Union.

For 150 years, Wales has been a stronghold of the left. At first, that meant Liberalism, in its Gladstonian and then Lloyd Georgian forms. Since the early 1920s it has been dominated by Labour. The party's power eroded in much of north and central Wales from the 1960s on, and was undermined in the valleys by the end of coal and the weakness of steel-making—yet Labour’s electoral machine kept control in the south. In the general elections of 1997 and 2001, the Tories scored “nul points.” The nationalist challenge was far weaker than in Scotland; Plaid Cymru could not break out of its Welsh-speaking mountain fastnesses. But Welsh Labour is no bastion of the far left—there are few Corbynistas here.

Labour has governed since the first elections for the Welsh Assembly in 1999. The party has twice been in coalition, first with the Liberal Democrats and then with its main adversary, Plaid Cymru. May’s election saw a sharp fall in Labour’s share of the vote, which dropped by over 7 per cent to 34.7 per cent. Yet in reality it was another triumph for its leader, Carwyn Jones. In the Assembly, 40 of the 60 members represent constituencies and are elected under the first-past-the-post system. The 20 who represent regions are elected under a form of proportional representation; a party that has already won a lot of constituency seats in a region may not gain any regional members, even if it has a large share of the vote there.

This eccentric system makes it hard to win a majority; Labour fell just short when it claimed 29 seats. The Conservatives, led by Brexit supporter Andrew RT Davies, returned just 11, in line with their traditional role in Wales as born losers. The Liberal Democrats are down to only one. Plaid Cymru’s leader Leanne Wood won a surprise victory in the Rhondda, and her party won 12 seats and 20.5 per cent of the vote. UKIP’s seven seats reflected the power of the regional system—their highest constituency vote was just 5,954.

In a shock move, Leanne Wood challenged Carwyn Jones for the post of First Minister when the Assembly reconvened on 11th May. With the Tories and Ukip throwing their support with Plaid Cymru (and the lone Liberal Democrat with Labour), the vote was tied 29 to 29. After a week of edgy negotiations between the parties the outcome was, predictably, that Jones has been reappointed First Minister in a Labour minority government.

Now there will be a critical test of how a small nation can cope with global pressures. Devolution in Wales has led to passionate controversy over education and health policy but, above all, it has to revive an economy which lags behind the rest of Britain. In 2014, the figure for gross value added per person (the contribution to the economy in goods or services) was £42,666 in London but a mere £17,573 in Wales. Yet, thanks to the bizarre Barnett formula, which allocates public spending in the devolved regions, it gets an inadequate return from the Treasury block grant.

The new Assembly government must now frame new initiatives for innovation and development. And heaven help the valleys if Brexit occurs since Wales is receiving £2bn in European aid as part of the EU's regional policy, not to mention help from the new European Fund for Strategic Investment. Meanwhile, the future of the Port Talbot steelworks hangs by a thread.

At least Wales will grapple with these matters at a time when devolution is a settled part of the landscape. The government has bowed to the recommendations of the Silk Commission on Welsh devolution and given the Assembly more clout, with reserve legislative powers similar to the Scottish parliament. In his brief tenure as Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb made other key concessions, including scrapping further referendums. The forthcoming Wales Bill will give the nation’s government something approaching the power it should always have had. Many lawyers now urge that Wales should have its own distinct legal jurisdiction, to give the growing body of Welsh law more rapid and positive impact. Last year, the Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales, Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd, said he was “concerned that judges who are appointed and sit in Wales actually understand that Wales... has a different legislature [and] is forming different laws.”

Wales is solidly Unionist and support for independence stands at 6 per cent. Yet time after time, the nation has been brushed off—notably in Cameron’s promises for a “balanced settlement” after the vote on Scottish independence, which landed us with still more Barnett. Wales can demonstrate how, at a pivotal time of constitutional change, the Union and devolution can co-exist, and that devolution is a stable place to inhabit. Wales can demonstrate how democracy can operate within two Unions, a devolved UK and a more regional Europe. It will also show whether a Labour Party, more Sadiq Khan than Jeremy Corbyn, can truly renew itself. Democracy, socialism, the Union and Europe will all be on trial. For all our futures, let us hope that Wales will overcome.