Politics

Can Cameron keep a lid on the Tories?

If Ukip cleans up today, the prime minister will have to get tough

May 02, 2013
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When it comes to mid-term elections, such as those under way today, it is often hard to separate the incumbent government’s attempts at expectation management from its genuine mood. When asked about the UKIP threat, a Number 10 spokesman noted that, “we are starting from a rather high base.” Senior Tories have been telling newspapers that disaster looms. But does it?

From the Tory perspective, the polling data is cause for alarm. A ComRes poll of voter intention in the areas going to the polls today shows the Conservative party on 31 per cent, Labour on 24 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent— and UKIP on 22 per cent.

In this scenario, UKIP could pick up anything up to 100 seats and if so, David Cameron will need to exert all the control he can over the more independent-minded elements of his own party, many of whom will feel that the Conservatives’ natural territory is being occupied by the upstart Farage. Mid-term kickings from the electorate are nothing new, and protest votes registered at local council elections tend not to be replicated at general elections.

But if the polls are correct and if UKIP does come a strong third, then the question arises as to whether Number 10 has the clout needed to keep order. There is a newly-appointed team in Downing Street, and they may soon be called on to keep a lid on a rumbling, discontented party. The question is whether they will have the heft to press down the lid and nail it shut.