Can David Cameron learn anything from Sweden, and its conservative party Moderaterna? The two parties are certainly friendly. There are regular informal meetings between them in London and Stockholm, and in February, Cameron spent two full days in Sweden.
Like the Tory party, Moderaterna has recently undergone perhaps the most dramatic makeover in its history. But unlike Cameron's team, Moderaterna has had the chance to contest and win a general election.
Moderaterna's development over the last few years, and some of its electoral tactics, could serve as a blueprint to the Tories as to how to win power. However, Cameron should be careful; travel too far down this road towards the political centre, or even centre-left, as with Moderaterna, and it may cost him later.
In 2003, while the Tories were busy scheming to force Iain Duncan Smith from the party leadership, Moderaterna was starting to shed its old skin. After a crushing election defeat a year earlier, a new young leader, Fredrik Reinfeldt, took control of the party. He and his fellow reformers immediately set to work revamping a party that was generally perceived as nastily right wing and fixated on tax cuts.
In just four years, the party has managed to position itself firmly in the centre left. It has thrown out a number of sacred cows: anti-trade unionism, anti-state driven feminism, and lower taxes. It has also attempted to reposition itself sociologically. In the run-up to the 2006 election, Moderaterna aimed to appeal to the working and middle-class voters who usually support the left.
Somewhere along the way, the word "new" was added to Moderaterna's vocabulary. "New Moderaterna" has more or less become the party's official name. And in last September's general election, it seemed that the voters had been convinced that this was indeed a new political force; Moderaterna, and its three centre-right allies, won a landslide victory.
What are the lessons for other conservative movements? Probably that the Moderaterna strategy—carrying through an ideological makeover and moving a little to the left—appears to work when it comes to winning elections. But during the past year, Moderaterna has seen its support drop, mainly because the obsession with changing public perception of the party is overshadowing the running of the country.
Many Swedes, especially those on the centre and right of the political spectrum, now seem to believe that the reversing of Moderaterna's former positions has gone too far. For instance, the government's support for the labour unions in two recent attention-grabbing blockades was not well received, nor was its recent proposal to dismantle vital parts of the Swedish military. And Moderaterna's commitment to same-sex marriage is hardly the most urgent reform in Sweden.
If the Conservatives do win the next election in Britain, they should aim to do a better job of addressing mainstream voter concerns than Moderaterna has. The Tories move on to social policy grounds is a step in the right direction. The so-called "broken society" of poverty and broken homes is a real issue in Britain. However, other Tory policies such as the courting of public sector workers in general, and NHS staff in particular, is likely to backfire as similar policies have in Sweden.
Cameron should think long and hard about what he wants to copy from Moderaterna. The toning down of traditional conservatism may pay off at the ballot box, as it did in Sweden. However, eradicating it completely is a mistake.
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