Unemployment is rising, but still not as fast as expected. Why?
by Tim Leunig / August 27, 2009 / Leave a commentPublished in September 2009 issue of Prospect Magazine
Lines at the job centre are lengthening. No surprise in a recession. But this one has been different, so far at least. For a start, the rise in unemployment has been less than economists would expect, given that the economy contracted by a record 5.6 per cent in the last year. One might predict that Britain’s much-vaunted flexible labour market would shed jobs quickly in a downturn. But the growth of employment protection under Labour makes it harder to fire people than in the slump of the early 1990s.
More important is a second trend: management and workers are trying to preserve jobs. Our economy is now more reliant on human capital for success, so that businesses have greater incentives to retain workers (and their skills) in place. Employees, whose skills are often specific to their company, have a similar reason to stay put. Both are more willing than in the past to agree to wage freezes, pay cuts, unpaid holiday or sabbaticals to make this happen. In its co-operation between management and workers, Britain is looking ever more like continental Europe from 1945-1973.