A rare wave of excitement swept through Brussels in early September after Nicolas Sarkozy's barnstorming speech on the future of Europe. Addressing the Brussels think tank Friends of Europe, Sarko called for a (not so) slimmed-down version of the constitution to be agreed and ratified within two years, and for a host of reforms, including the right of the European commission president to recruit his own team of commissioners. So packed was the Bibliothèque Solvay for the oration that latecomers were crowded into a balcony, obscuring your diarist's view of the men below who hope to shape Sarko's European policy if, as the polls predict, he triumphs in the French presidential elections next May.
In the front row of the main hall sat Alain Lamassoure, the veteran MEP and former French Europe minister. Two seats away was Michel Barnier, France's ex-foreign minister and European commissioner. Both men contributed to the speech and both were praised by Sarko. Sarkozy's determination to revive much of the ill-fated constitution may partly be explained by the fact that Lamassoure and Barnier were instrumental in drawing it up. Barnier was the European commission's representative on the presidium that controlled the convention; Lamassoure an important contributor and ally of its chairman Valéry Giscard d'Estaing.
Barnier was subsequently elevated to the top job at the Quai d'Orsay, but then made a sacrificial victim for the rejection of the constitution by the French voters in last year's referendum. Sacked and humiliated by Jacques Chirac, Barnier hopes that by backing Sarkozy for the presidency, he can win back his old post as foreign minister and have the last laugh. The only hitch is that Lamassoure, an old ally of Sarko, harbours identical ambitions. The presidential candidate is playing the two men off against each other and may have offered the same job to both.
As for the speech itself, some French insiders claim that they could work out which passage in the Sarkozy speech was drafted by Lamassoure and which by Barnier. But many of the more radical ideas seem destined to be vetoed by more sceptical EU member states.
Sarkozy's strategy is based on support for a slimmed-down mini-constitution in his presidential election campaign and a promise to ratify it through the French parliament if he wins. That neatly sidesteps the need for another referendum, resolving the "French problem"—but presenting a headache for one or two other countries. Little wonder the speech caused such alarm in London.
Brown rubs them up the wrong way
If the parliamentary Labour party cannot wait to eject Tony Blair, our continental friends are pretty desperate to keep him. Gordon Brown's tenure as chancellor of the exchequer has convinced the more integrationist nations of the EU that he will not be easy to work with. The French daily Libération quotes one unnamed French diplomat on the personal qualities of Britain's prime minister-in-waiting. Brown is, says the paper's mole at the Quai d'Orsay, "rude, disagreeable" and the "most uncouth man ever encountered."
Nato's Afghan adventures
Over at Nato the mood is a curious mix of anxiety and excitement. The transatlantic alliance spends much of its time engaging in an existential crisis, worried that it is sinking into terminal irrelevance. But the scale of the hostilities in Afghanistan has given it something of a new purpose. The downside is the nagging fear that the conflict in the south of the country is turning into a mini-Vietnam. As it happens, the alliance's supreme allied commander in Europe, General James Jones, is a veteran of the Tet offensive and says he looks back to his experience in Vietnam to make judgements about Afghanistan. His theory is that the period leading up to the Afghan winter will be decisive in the showdown with the Taliban and that the Nato forces will emerge triumphant. The analysis is, however, rather more subtle than much of the rhetoric emerging from Washington. Jones argues that in 1968, the South Vietnamese army did not enjoy the support of the Vietnamese people, whereas the Afghan army is relatively popular. He also says that the war on drugs, and the battle to prevent Afghanistan becoming a narco-state, is more important than any military solution. The US marine seems to have drawn the lesson that some Europeans have long advanced: soft power matters.
The Kaczynskis are not amused
What with their record of campaigning against gay rights and their enthusiasm for the death penalty, the Kaczynski brothers are not the easiest of interlocutors for the European commission. Lech was elected Polish president last year on a nationalist ticket and now his twin brother Jaroslaw has become prime minister. The men are identical twins who try to avoid appearing together in public to avoid confusing the Polish electorate. But when prime minister Jaroslaw appeared in Brussels for the first time, the commission president, José Manuel Barroso, tried to break the ice with a little joke. Although it was their first meeting, Barroso said that things had gone so well that he felt that he already knew Jaroslaw Kaczynski. That, he added, was because he had already met his brother last year. The Polish premier remained stony-faced. The Kaczynskis do not do jokes, especially unfunny ones about twins.
