The press review, an annual sketch show put on by the Brussels press corps, takes pride in trashing the reputation of European commissioners. This year Peter Mandelson proved to be the main victim—although in his case the damage was done by what was said offstage. The trade commissioner did not attend but his spokesman did, and after the show he found himself surrounded by correspondents seeking details of a recent meeting between Mandelson and his old enemy Gordon Brown. Mandelson's team had already let it be known that the encounter had gone surprisingly well, but at this bibulous, impromptu briefing it emerged that the future of Mandy's job as trade commissioner had been raised.
A year ago, in a well-publicised gaffe, Mandelson told the BBC that Brown wouldn't be able to sack him after becoming prime minister since Mandy intended to leave at the end of his term in 2009 anyway. But in doing so Mandelson—whose flair for media management rarely extends to his own PR—risked making himself a lame duck. The outburst weakened his credibility in Brussels, because a commissioner's status depends in part on their government's support. Worse, the episode was an embarrassment to Mandelson's boss, European commission president José Manuel Barroso. Barroso is desperate to be reappointed for a second term, which will require the support of the British prime minister. So Barroso was horrified at the reappearance of the Sicilian-style blood feud between one of his team and the man in charge of No 10.
Thus the Mandelson team had good reason to spin the notion of a Brown-Mandelson rapprochement. Such an idea could only improve Mandelson's status as a credible trade negotiator. Of course, if the rapprochement with Brown proved durable, then it could do Mandelson's future job prospects no harm. Having the story out would also be useful for the prime minister, since it would show off his magnanimity towards the Blairites—including his oldest enemy. And without any statement on the record, Brown would not be committed to anything.
To begin with, it all seemed to be working. When journalists sought a reaction from Downing Street the day after the Saturday night press review, they were told that Brown thought Mandelson had been a good commissioner. Stories appeared in four British newspapers the following day, and Mandelson's private office received several congratulatory calls. But crucially, Mandelson had failed to clear his lines with Downing Street—or even warn them what was coming. When Brown saw the press stories, some of which suggested that he had offered Mandelson a new term as British commissioner, rather than just discussed the possibility in the vaguest of terms, Downing Street concluded that the prince of darkness was up to his old tricks. An angry Brown publicly ruled out a second term, saying that Mandelson himself had said he wanted to move on next year. The two men have spoken since, and the tone is said to have been businesslike.
Crunch time for Doha
Since he now knows that he really is going, Mandelson—like all departing politicians—is thinking about his "legacy." This will be determined within the next few weeks, because this is make or break time for the Doha development round. Of course, the first "final" deadline for agreement was missed a full two years ago, but the clock cannot now get much closer to midnight without striking. Pascal Lamy, director general of the World Trade Organisation, is expected to convene a crunch meeting in Geneva in May. If there is no deal this year, the prospects of a breakthrough in 2009 are virtually non-existent, because the US will elect a new president in November and he or she will inevitably take months to install their trade representative. And a Democrat administration may be more protectionist than the current Republican one. Moreover, no one believes that a new president of either political hue will have the Doha round at the top of their in-tray.
So what are the prospects of a breakthrough? Europeans say they have offered their grand bargain to the US, but that the Americans are being unrealistic in their demands on emerging countries to open their markets to American goods and services. The Brazilians appear to want a deal, but the Indians are ambivalent at best. One official says that Mandelson has been spending 80 per cent of his time for the last four years on a negotiation whose prospects of success are about 50 per cent. And if there is no Doha deal, what exactly will Mandelson be able to show for his time in Brussels? A lot of air miles, says one diplomat.
Barroso's presidential style
Under Barroso, the old idea of lengthy deliberations in commission meetings has given way to decision-making between the president and the commissioners involved in the specific issues. All this is done ahead of the weekly meeting of the 27 commissioners, often making the Wednesday gatherings pointless. So ruthlessly is this system being enforced that British officials in the commission feel nicely at home. "It's just like cabinet government in London," says one.
