Conventional wisdom long held that the presidential candidates would be decided by "super-duper Tuesday" on 5th February. But this may not happen. Among the Democrats, both Clinton and Obama can muster the cash and support required for a long haul. Among Republicans, Romney has the funding (his own), McCain has the support, Huckabee has the evangelicals and Giuliani the chutzpah to go on beyond February. So the races may still be under way by the time the party conventions roll around in the summer, which would be the first time a nominee had been chosen at a convention since the 1920s.
On the face of it, the Clinton vs Obama duel should be settled sooner. But the Democrats live up to their name, and use a system of proportional representation in their primaries to allocate delegates to the convention. So Clinton could lose state after state and still win, if she can hold on to the real wildcard of the Democratic race—the so-called "super-delegates." Every senator, congressman, state governor, member of the Democratic National Committee and state party chair gets a vote, and these add up to 796. This is about one fifth of the total number of delegates, or close to 40 per cent of a winning majority. The last time this mattered was in 1984, when former vice-president Walter Mondale was 40 delegates short of a majority over Gary Hart. Mondale called in all his favours, and the super-delegates put him over the top.
Clinton can probably call in more favours than Obama, and she has far more endorsements. At the time of going to press, she was leading Obama by 183 super-delegates to 78 (John Edwards had 52). The establishment is with her, and she will probably need it because the black and youth votes are starting to rally to Obama. That means her grip on California is no longer assured; the state is an open primary for the Democrats, so registered independents can also vote, and they lean heavily to Obama. And the southern states, with their high black vote, could bring about an Obama tidal wave. No wonder Clinton's consigliere (and Guardian columnist) Sidney Blumenthal was arrested for driving under the influence in New Hampshire.
Endorsement dilemmas
Speed and skill in hitting the phones is a crucial attribute for a candidate. So far, Clinton is ahead on points. When the rumour emerged that Bill Richardson was pulling out of the race, she was the first to reach him to seek his endorsement—not that she was likely to get it. Richardson is prime vice-presidential material, with the ability to rally a lot of Hispanic voters (three of his four grandparents were Mexican), and perhaps tip the balance in some southwestern states. But there had been testy exchanges between Clinton and Richardson, and whispers about his active, er, social life do not go down well with a woman who has had to put up with Bill Clinton. Moreover, in the days when the nomination seemed assured, Hillary's aides made it clear they were looking for a running mate who could carry an important state, like Evan Bayh in Indiana or Mark Warner in Virginia. But where else can Richardson go? A black candidate is hardly likely to pick a Hispanic running mate.
The big endorsement that may yet come is that of Al Gore, whose opinions on the Clintons are not friendly. So Bill and Hillary are hoping that Gore will decide not to endorse anybody until the party has a nominee. After his premature endorsement of Howard Dean in 2004, Gore may sit this one out, knowing that his appearance at the convention will be the political equivalent of the second coming. And who knows, if the convention gets deadlocked, the party could yet turn to its winner of Oscars, Nobels and popular votes in presidential elections.
Obama's money men strike
Talking of speed-dialling, Obama's money men are very quick off the mark. Robert Wolf, chairman and CEO of UBS in America and the key man on Obama's finance team, spent the day after Obama's Iowa victory calling donors to the ill-fated campaigns of senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. Obama's team also contacted fundraisers for Edwards, who were surprised since their man was still very much in the race.
Rudie can fail
Even though Hillary held a public phone-in vote to pick her campaign song, the winning "You and I" by Celine Dion is seldom heard. Instead we get Tom Petty's "American Girl" and sometimes "Takin' Care of Business" by Bachman-Turner Overdrive or Dolly Parton's "9 to 5." Edwards uses U2's "In the Name of Love" and Obama usually enters to Aretha Franklin's "Freedom."
The Republicans are less predictable. John McCain ranges from "Let's Get It Started" by the Black Eyed Peas to the theme from Rocky. Romney uses Elvis's "A Little Less Conversation." Giuliani has tried punk, with "Rudie Can't Fail" by the Clash, but retreated to the safer ground of "Nessun Dorma." It makes you feel nostalgic for Al Gore's "Love Train" in 2000 and Bob Dole's unforgettably inapposite "Soul Man" in 1996.
