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Peter Kellner

The Pollster

How to conduct a Greening referendum

Having three options on the ballot paper is even more complicated than it sounds

by Peter Kellner / July 16, 2018 / Leave a comment
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Former Education Secretary Justine Greening. Photo: David Mirzoeff/PA Wire/PA Images

Justine Greening has come out in favour of a People’s Vote—but with a twist. Instead of a binary choice—say, compromise deal versus no Brexit—she wants voters to judge three options: no Brexit, compromise or hard Brexit.

It would certainly be novel. Other countries have occasionally held multi-choice referendums; but these have generally been first-past-the post choices, such as when Australia picked Advance Australia Fair as its national song in 1977. What Greening wants is for voters to give their first and second choices. If none of the options wins 50 per cent support, the least popular option would be eliminated, and the second choices of its supporters counted.

There is nothing intrinsically wrong in constitutional innovation. However, Greening’s proposal raises an important question of democratic choice when more than two options are on the table. In short, how do we measure which is most popular when none of the options wins 50 per cent of first preference votes?

Here is one scenario. It is emphatically not a prediction but it is, I believe, plausible. Suppose this is how the UK votes in a Greening referendum

No Brexit: 38 per cent (Second preferences: Compromise 30 per cent, Hard Brexit 8 per cent)

Compromise deal: 30 per cent (Second preferences: Hard Brexit 20 per cent, No Brexit 10 per cent)

Hard Brexit: 32 per cent (Second preferences: Compromise 25 per cent, No Brexit 7 per cent)

Here are three ways the nation’s choice could be calculated.

  1. First-past-the-post: No Brexit has the most votes, so the UK stays in the European Union

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Related articles

What to put on the ballot paper? Seven options for a second referendum
Peter Kellner / December 4, 2018
The “people’s vote” campaign could succeed—but what question to ask voters? 
I would support a second referendum even if I were a Brexiteer
AC Grayling / September 21, 2018
Another vote is simply a democratic necessity, whichever side you are on
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About this author

Peter Kellner
Peter Kellner is former President of YouGov and a political analyst and commentator
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