In 2012 all euro area countries are issuing a joint euro coin to commemorate ten years of euro banknotes and coins. In spite of this celebratory act, the euro may not survive in its current form.

Attempts to solve the euro crisis by fiscal austerity or even full fiscal union are not going to prevent a prolonged recession in the eurozone. As recession deepens, threatening a depression, the temptation for the southern European “Club Med” countries to break out is likely to become irresistible.

The rot is not caused by budget deficits, but by the varying competitiveness of national economies created by the fixed exchange rate and a “one-size-fits-none” monetary policy. Spain and Ireland both tightened their belts during the good years, running budget surpluses until 2007—but consumers and firms went on a major borrowing and spending spree, while structural reform was put on the backburner.

Attempts to reduce the