Labour needs to focus less on those who didn't vote last time, and more on those who voted for someone elseby James Kanagasooriam / September 10, 2015 / Leave a comment
With Labour most likely poised to elect Jeremy Corbyn as its next leader this Saturday, it’s worth looking at how he could assemble a winning coalition of voters for 2020. His supporters claim that Corbyn reaches the parts of the electorate—particularly the young—that others can’t. They have identified three pools of potential voters who turned their backs on Labour in 2015; people who voted for other parties of protest, those who did not vote at all and the young (often well-represented in these first two categories). Almost anyone, in fact, who didn’t vote Conservative. But is this enough?
Labour’s failure to monopolise the protest vote clearly cost it at the general election—in England and Wales alone, UKIP’s vote share was larger than the winning margin in 159 seats. Labour came second in as many of these seats as the Conservatives. In Scotland, Labour voters switching to the SNP cost it 40 seats—but some Corbyn advocates have argued that even these gains would be dwarfed if Labour could mobilise more of Britain’s 16m non-voters.