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Who are the Liberal Democrats?

James Crabtree

On 4th June, BBC Radio 4’s The News Quiz began with the week’s big story: the resignation of David Laws, the Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the treasury. “Which axeman was first for the chop?” asked host Sandi Toksvig, as panellists joked that Laws’s use of his parliamentary expenses marked the first “proper” scandal of the new government. Toksvig—a Liberal Democrat supporter herself—then asked with mock pride: “So do you think this makes the Lib Dems finally a proper political party?” The jibe brought laughter from the audience, but was, in truth, a fair question. After a 20 year struggle to shed an image as a fringe party incapable of taking power, the Liberal Democrats have entered government for the first time.

The Lib-Con coalition was among the most unexpected events in recent British political history. Yet if it caught the media on the hop, it was almost as surprising for the Lib Dems themselves. For much of the past two decades, the party staked out its ground on the left. Even with David Cameron’s more liberal style of conservatism, most who dared dream of power after the 2010 election assumed it would come through a “progressive alliance” with a chastened Labour party. Looked at another way, though, the decisions taken by the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg over those six tense days in May seem, if not inevitable, then less surprising. The Lib Dems have changed significantly since the early 2000s. The bearded civil libertarians are less evident at party gatherings, and the party has quietly developed a more effective national operation. More importantly, a new generation of talented and ambitious politicians—notably Clegg, Laws, Chris Huhne and Vince Cable—had gradually taken control. While the circle around former leader Charles Kennedy saw their task as opposing the injustices of market liberalism, this new cohort was more market friendly. They took aim at Labour’s enlarged state, while also arguing for fiscal discipline in the face of the financial crisis. In the Orange Book, a collection of essays published in 2004, the group argued that Lib Dems needed to balance their social instincts with a rediscovery of the party’s market-friendly roots. These changes were reinforced by shifts in policy following Clegg’s 2007 leadership victory, and together set the stage for the decision to join not with Labour, but with the Tories.

The conference of 1,650 activists called by Nick Clegg to ratify the coalition agreement brought together his party’s various factions on 16th May. The result was an overwhelming vote in favour of Clegg’s decisions—a surprising moment of near-total unity given the party’s unexpected post-election path. Like any political organisation, the Liberal Democrats are an association of different tribes. The old Liberal party itself has two conflicting traditions. On its right is a 19th-century liberal approach concerned with individual freedom and limiting state power. On its left, from the turn of the 20th century, flows an interventionist “social liberal” strand, given fullest form in the writings of sociologist Leonard Hobhouse. His work offered a positive vision of the state, and found expression in the reforming governments of Asquith and Lloyd George. (The two 20th century figures most associated with the growth of state power—Keynes and Beveridge—were both Liberals.)

Having been eclipsed by Labour from the start of the 20th century, the Liberals recovered only gradually, first under Jo Grimond in the late 1950s and 1960s, and then more strongly following the merger with the Social Democratic party (SDP) in 1988. The marriage was at first a messy one, with the former SDP leader and ex-Labour foreign secretary David Owen rejecting the merger and drifting off into a loose alliance with the Tories (and thus sharpening the anti-Tory instincts of the new party)-. The rest of the SDP merged with the Liberals to form the Social and Liberal Democrats, which in 1989 became just the Liberal Democrats. Today the Liberal/SDP divide matters less; the generation that brought the parties together has aged, and many of its leaders have retired to the Lords. Nonetheless glimpses of it remain, as when some former Liberals viewed Charles Kennedy with suspicion because of his youthful SDP membership.

The left-leaning Paddy Ashdown, elected leader in 1988, helped iron out some of these differences, meaning future internal divisions generally came not from ideology or history but organisation—in particular the local government activists. By the mid-1990s the Lib Dems boasted more than 5,000 councillors, overhauling the Tories to become the second most powerful local party. Today they have around 4,100 councillors, some involved in local coalitions with the Tories too. Indeed, until the Orange Book was published, the Liberal Democrats’ most obvious division was between local government activists and the Westminster leadership. In the latter stages of Ashdown’s leadership, his desire for closer links with Labour often led to conference spats with local activists. Charles Kennedy’s consensual style meant such run-ins were less common. Meanwhile a new cadre of businesspeople began to help run the party—such as Tim Razzall, Kennedy’s campaign chief, and Dick Newby, his chief of staff.

The party’s relative strength in the “Celtic fringe” has also mattered. In its years in the doldrums, the Liberal party survived largely in those areas less touched by the class politics of the industrial revolution—rural Scotland, Wales and southwest England—where non-conformist identities remained. This was further boosted by entry into coalition governments with Labour in 1999 (in Scotland) and 2000 (in Wales). Curiously, neither the devolved assemblies nor the massed ranks of councillors has provided an alternative power base: few local leaders have gone on to become prominent in Westminster. Nonetheless, the small band of MPs are often outnumbered by those whose background in local government usually means a benign view of the state, support for local income taxes and resistance to reforms in public services. The influence of the local authority faction can still be seen in suspicion of education policies (such as Labour’s academy schools programme, which the Tories want to extend) that threaten to take schools out of the control of local government.

Unlike the two “old” parties, Lib Dem activists still play an important role in policy, and the votes of members at party conference matter. Election manifestos are produced by an intricate series of committees and reviews, co-ordinated by a federal policy committee of 29 people comprising MPs, officials and elected party members. Overseeing this is a 35-strong body called the federal executive, which brings the leader together with MPs, MEPs, councillors and members. Power is effectively split in three directions: between Clegg and his office, his MPs and Lords, and the wider membership as filtered through the committees. This lively internal democracy means the issues that most unite members—such as support for civil liberties or environmentalism—can create powerful blocks that the leadership is reluctant to challenge.

Perhaps recalling bitter splits during the 1980s, Lib Dems are loath to admit that debates within their party have become more ideological of late. Charles Kennedy made this point when resigning as leader in 2006, admitting “there is a genuine debate going on within this party—somewhat crudely caricatured at times… in rather simplistic terms as between social liberals and economic liberals; in rather misleading terms as between traditionalists and modernisers.” But he went on to dismiss it, saying that he had “never accepted that these are irreconcilable instincts,” stressing instead the party’s unity over support for civil liberties, the EU, environmental protection and multilateralism abroad.

The idea that the Lib-Con coalition was the inevitable result of an Orange Book coup is, of course, an unpopular caricature of recent history. And there are equally plausible explanations. One senior Lib Dem figure explained the move in terms of the party’s desire to back a further big step towards the “Europeanisation” of Britain, in which coalition government follows on from higher public spending, greater devolution, and a more centrist, consensual politics. The fact that the deal was made with Tories rather than Labour, as most Liberal Democrats would probably have preferred, is also down to circumstances: the election arithmetic made a Labour deal all but impossible. Those close to the negotiations recall that, in the first few days after the result, the party’s mood was to remain in opposition, offering the Conservatives “confidence and supply” support on an issue-by-issue basis. Later, standing in Downing Street’s rose garden, Clegg and Cameron said they had rejected this as “uninspiring.” But in truth both leaders saw the benefit of shielding themselves against more fundamentalist factions within their own parties: Cameron telling his negotiating team that this was the chance to ditch the inheritance tax cut favoured by the right; Clegg happily ridding himself of his party’s stubborn opposition to university tuition fees and nuclear power.

Support for a deal was never in doubt among the ambitious Orange Book group. Meanwhile, Clegg was able to placate the left wing of his party by stressing Labour’s failures on political reform and civil liberties, while the promised referendum on the alternative vote was crucial in carrying a number of late-night sessions with his Lords and MPs. For the Lib Dems, support for the coalition represented a coming of age, and it was made possible by the development of a mature intra-party ideological debate common to Labour and the Tories—one that began almost a decade earlier.

As the Liberal Democrats gathered for their annual conference in Brighton in 2003 they were, on the surface at least, in good shape. The 2001 election had seen the party consolidate gains from 1997, winning another six seats to take its total to 52. Poll ratings had been boosted by Kennedy’s opposition to the invasion of Iraq earlier in the year, and by Labour’s introduction of tuition fees. With Iain Duncan Smith’s Tories in disarray, party strategists even talked boldly of becoming the official opposition by the decade’s end. Not everyone, however, was happy.

David Laws, who had in 2001 replaced Paddy Ashdown as MP for Yeovil, met party donor Paul Marshall for a quiet drink. Laws was a former banker who had made enough money to retire at 28, going on to work (unpaid) in the party’s policy team in the mid-1990s. Marshall’s career had been almost the reverse: once a parliamentary researcher to Charles Kennedy, he went on to run a hedge fund and become a key Lib Dem financier. Neither man saw themselves as hostile to the party’s social-liberal traditions, but were seen to be from its market-friendly centre-right—and both were worried about the direction the party had taken under Kennedy.

Paddy Ashdown once told aides that his party was like a flawed car: without a strong driver it veered to the left. One might predict that a centre party squeezed on its left by new Labour would shift to the centre-right, to ground vacated by the Tories after 1997. But in 2003, as Ashdown predicted, the opposite was under way. Laws, in particular, was concerned that a combination of good economic times and the party’s embedded anti-conservatism had led it to put too much faith in the state, and too little in the market. Although Ashdown is most remembered for courting Labour, his leadership included centrist moves, like dropping the penny on income tax pledge, and his 1999 resignation speech called for the liberation of “the great institutions that deliver our public services—education, health, justice, welfare—from the clammy embrace of corporatism.” This was an instinct shared by the then Labour leader Tony Blair, part of the reason for their mutual attraction. But where Blair was making an aggressive case for public-services reform, the new Kennedy leadership seemed unwilling to follow. As one adviser put it, there was a danger that the party was known for combining an “eco-pacifist” agenda with an approach to public services that promised to solve all problems with higher spending. It was against this backdrop that Marshall and Laws decided to gather their party’s new generation, and publish the Orange Book to push the liberal case.

In addition to putting forward their ideas, the Orange Bookers were also subtly pushing back at the electoral campaigning techniques that had rescued the party from its years in the wilderness—but now seemed to have reached their limits. There was even a word to describe this approach: “Rennardism,” named after Chris Rennard, the party’s powerful chief executive. Rennard resigned from the post in 2009, but his rise within the party—joining at the age of 12 to eventually become its campaign director and then its head—coincides with its emergence as an electoral force. Rennard recalls: “Back in 1989 there were 16 paid staff employed by the Liberal Democrats, operating out of only two floors in our Cowley Street HQ. We had no campaigning support, and no understanding of how to support work in local constituencies.” The approach to local campaigning he developed was a logical response to the disadvantages his party faced under the first-past-the-post electoral system, and its lack of a class base of supporters.

Academics Andrew Russell and Edward Fieldhouse studied the make-up of Lib Dem voters and found that their class profile made them look like Conservatives, but ideologically they tended to be closer to Labour. Even so the duo found that “Liberal Democrat voting was weakly related to the social and demographic characteristics of voters,” concluding that because the party was “unable to mobilise support on the basis of social divisions, instead it must look… to issue-based mobilisation.” This meant a deepening focus on local campaigns; a “pavement politics” approach that won the Lib Dems a reputation as fanatical leafletters and door-knockers, and a reputation as the best political campaigners in Britain.

One activist explained what he understood Rennardism to be: “You win by campaigning locally, and you choose a strong local candidate. And as a result many of our new MPs tended to be people who represented their community rather than national issues.” Understanding the party had little chance of victory in most of the country, Rennard targeted its limited resources in a few potentially winnable seats. Between elections he built up the party in local government, seeing councillors as stepping stones to MPs. Winning by-elections through flooding a constituency with activists became a speciality.

Yet for all its success, Rennard’s model was criticised for putting local campaigns above consistent policies. A third party in a system built for two always struggles to find distinctive policies; the Lib Dems have often been accused of pointing to the right in the south and west of England to win Tory voters, and to the left in the north to win Labour voters. But as Labour moved to the centre, the Lib Dems found their most distinctive positions—such as the penny on income tax to fund education, or opposition to the Iraq war—to Labour’s left. Other signature policies involved more public spending, such as free long-term care for the elderly. It seemed that the party’s strategy of tactically responding to voters’ concerns to win by-elections had taken hold nationally, creating an opportunistic mish-mash of policy.

It was against this background that the Orange Book was published. It had Charles Kennedy’s blessing—he noted in a preface that all its ideas were “compatible with our liberal heritage.” Indeed, most of the contributions—from the likes of Clegg, Huhne and Cable—were uncontroversial. Cable’s chapter called for a greater use of the private and third sectors in the provision of public services. But Laws’s contribution put the group’s case most frankly. His opening essay mocked a list of Lib Dem statist policies: “the compulsory micro-chipping of dogs… bans on animals in circuses, and even a ban on giving goldfish as prizes in fairs.” In a further chapter he suggested that the party should examine replacing the NHS with a system based on social insurance. And in one barbed passage he asked “how did it come about that over the decades up to the 1980s the Liberal belief in economic liberalism was progressively eroded by forms of soggy socialism and corporatism?” An article in the Independent heralded the essays as a “revolution” from a group of “young turks who are more Blairite than Mr Blair.” Internally, the Orange Bookers stood accused of creating disunity in the run-up to the 2005 election, and the book’s launch, planned for the party’s 2004 conference, was cancelled.

In the general election that followed, the Lib Dems won 62 seats—the party’s biggest ever haul. On the surface, this seemed a rebuke to the reformers. But worries about the party’s leadership and ideological direction quickly became more widely shared. Kennedy admitted that the 2005 manifesto had been something of a “shopping list.” Concerns on the centre right increased when leftist MP Paul Holmes defeated the centrist Matthew Taylor to become party chairman. But doubts about Kennedy’s strategy were eclipsed by those about his drinking. In one grim Newsnight exchange Jeremy Paxman began an interview with Kennedy by asking: “Does it trouble you that every single politician to whom we’ve spoken in preparing for this interview said the same thing: ‘You’re interviewing Charles Kennedy? I hope he’s sober’?” Frustration over Kennedy’s style were not limited to the party’s centre right. Duncan Brack, a social-liberal thinker, later wrote that, without Iraq as a rallying cry, the “hollowness at the centre of his leadership would have been exposed much earlier.” He concluded: “The problem with Kennedy was not alcohol; it was that he was not capable of being an effective leader.”

Kennedy finally resigned in January 2006, and an immediate split opened up as Clegg backed Menzies Campbell for leader, while Chris Huhne had a tilt at the crown himself. This deepened at the next leadership election, after Campbell’s inglorious year as leader. Clegg had long been seen as leader-in-waiting by the party’s centre right, but Huhne ran an energetic campaign, appealing to the more numerous left. In an attack titled “Calamity Clegg,” he hinted darkly at his opponent’s support for education vouchers and Trident. Some in Clegg’s team pushed him to take a more aggressive modernising tone. But he played it safe, and it worked, just—Clegg won by barely 500 votes out of a total of 41,465 cast.

Having been elected without challenging his party, Clegg needed to define himself while preparing for a general election many thought was imminent. An early indication of his views came in a speech on public services in January 2008, which laid out a vision in which “the state must back off and allow the genius of grassroots innovation, diversity and experimentation” in schools and hospitals. Taking on those in his party, and especially within its local government base, Clegg argued that he wanted to develop “a new liberal model of schools that are non-selective, under local government strategic oversight but not run by the council.” Six months later Clegg pushed his party again, this time on tax—publishing a policy document called “Make It Happen,” outlining plans for cuts in public spending and tax cuts for the least well off.

Such moves gradually forced a reaction from the dominant but intellectually dormant social-liberal wing, in particular, over Clegg’s attempts to change the party’s opposition to tuition fees, hinted at during his party’s 2008 conference. Shortly afterwards, left-wing MP Evan Harris combined with Kennedy’s former director of policy Richard Grayson to organise a slate of candidates to sit on the party’s federal policy committee. The committee then blocked Clegg from changing the tuition fees line before the party’s 2009 spring conference. When Clegg later hinted that the policy was unaffordable, most of the committee took the extraordinary step of writing a letter to the Guardian confirming the pledge would be in the manifesto. Grayson, along with Duncan Brack, also published a book of essays to challenge the Orange Bookers, Reinventing the State. Brack’s essay outlined the importance of greater equality as a party objective, and defended the role of a reformed, decentralised state. (Clegg and Huhne, in an implicit call for unity, also wrote chapters.) Elsewhere, a new organisation called the Social Liberal Forum was founded to try to bring coherence to the party’s left, and to balance out other new groups, such as the think tank CentreForum, funded by the Orange Book co-editor Paul Marshall. The result is a party that increasingly sees policy decisions as a contest between its two ideological wings.

If the coalition falls apart in the next two to three years—most likely over education or a foreign policy issue, according to one Lib Dem insider—the electoral consequences for the smaller party could be severe. But even if it goes the distance, Clegg still needs to demonstrate—to his voters and members—that the Lib Dems have brought a distinctive agenda into government, and could do so again. Yet this need to signal dividing lines with their Tory partners will have to be carefully managed to avoid looking like disunity. Tensions within the coalition will be matched by strains within the Lib Dems too. Vernon Bogdanor, the Oxford professor of politics, has argued that throughout the 20th century liberals have been divided between “those who were sympathetic to pacts and arrangements with other parties, and those who feared compromising their independence.” Those Lib Dems who worry that post-election agreements may stray from the party’s priorities can already point to the coalition’s support for nuclear power, or the increases in tuition fees.

Senior Lib Dems admit it is not yet clear how the party plans to marry the need for swift decisions to be taken in government with its slow-moving internal policy development. Equally, Clegg will need to be mindful of the ongoing debate within his party. While the Orange Book cohort now occupy the main government jobs, the party’s left may respond by taking further hold of its internal machinery. This is what appeared to happen when Simon Hughes, long a standard-bearer for the left, made a show of running for the previously unimportant position of deputy leader, a position he won on 9th June.

Clegg also faces a series of complicated choices. As a popular deputy prime minister, he is now the most powerful Liberal Democrat leader ever—a position reinforced by his impressive personal performance in the televised election debates between the three party leaders. If he can deliver, and win, a referendum on the alternative vote (and thus probably gain a dozen more MPs at the next election to add to the current tally of 57) his power will grow further. He also benefits both from the profile of government, and a new power of patronage. But his policymaking position is much weaker than Cameron’s, and he is also more constrained by his party’s policies. Although those close to him say the issues that most drive him remain political reform, the EU and civil liberties, none of which are mainstream concerns, in opposition Clegg began a process of remodelling his party around a new agenda closer to that of the Orange Book. Proximity to the Tories could strengthen this push: the opportunity to use the coalition to triangulate between his party’s left and his coalition partners will be tempting. But the opposite may end up happening too: the need to maintain unity in his party could force Clegg to stake out positions that appeal to its left.

It is perhaps apt that the Lib Dems and Conservatives ended up in coalition, given how closely the modernising project of Laws, Clegg, Cable and Huhne from 2003 onwards mirrors the process undertaken simultaneously by David Cameron and George Osborne. The latter wanted to move their party to the centre and shed an image of nastiness. The former wanted to move their party to the right, and gain an image of professionalism. Both were united by the need for change, a frustration with their current leadership, and a hunger for power. (And both are overwhelmingly from establishment backgrounds—public school and Oxbridge.) Taking the final step of going into coalition showed that the Lib Dems had become a mature political force—one which finally silenced those who feared the party would always prefer the purity of opposition to the messy compromise of government.


The sorry story of Lib-Con coalitions
by Dick Leonard

“A new politics,” claim supporters of the Liberal Democrat decision to enter coalition with the Conservatives. Not quite. Leaving aside the two world wars, there have been four occasions during the past 216 years when Liberals, or their Whig forerunners, have joined Tory-led coalitions. And each time it was the Tories who flourished, while their partners disappeared without trace.

The first occasion was 1794, when William Cavendish-Bentinck (left), the third Duke of Portland, led more than half the Whig party into the government of William Pitt the Younger. Six cabinet places were won, but the rump of their party was left in opposition under Charles James Fox. The “Portlandites” soon lost any independent existence. As a doddery old man, Portland much later achieved the unique distinction of having served both as a Whig (1783) and a Tory (1807-09) prime minister.

Forty years later, in 1834, Edward Stanley led a small group in resignation from Earl Grey’s Whig government, in protest against political concessions given to Catholics in Ireland. These “Stanleyites” were at first independent, but later joined a Conservative government led by Robert Peel. Although his group was soon swallowed up, Stanley became the 14th Earl of Derby and later led three Tory minority governments.

In 1886, Lord Hartington and Joseph Chamberlain led a large number of Liberal Unionists out of their party in protest against Gladstone’s policy of Irish home rule, in time joining governments led by Lord Salisbury and Arthur Balfour. Chamberlain (left) proved equally divisive in his new home, where his advocacy of tariff reform prompted Winston Churchill to defect to the Liberals. Hartington and Chamberlain eventually resigned, leaving the renamed Conservative and Unionist party as the only trace of their entry.

Finally, in 1931, the Liberals joined the “national” government nominally led by former Labour prime minister Ramsay MacDonald, but with Tories Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain calling the shots. Chamberlain’s protectionism quickly provoked a split in the Liberals, however, and led their leader Herbert Samuel to resign as home secretary. Those who stayed, led by foreign secretary John Simon, set up a new Liberal National party which, though it formally existed until the 1940s, soon became indistinguishable from the Tories.

All four occasions show the same pattern: Liberals entering coalitions and dividing their party, before being swallowed up. Nick Clegg believes he can keep his party’s independence, but to do so will be the triumph of hope over experience.

Dick Leonard recently completed a trilogy of books on prime ministers from Walpole to Blair

Six must-reads to understand the new Lib-Con moment

James Crabtree
What to make of the lib-con moment?

What to make of the lib-con moment?

This is a genuinely exciting political moment. It is the government the country wanted: Cameron, with Clegg; a fired-up blue Quattro, with yellow brakes. It is also uncharted territory. Cameron must now reframe the central narratives of his leadership—the big society, broken Britain, vote blue/go green, the post-bureaucratic age—to create a new “Lib-Con” narrative. Clegg must define his contribution to the government as specifically liberal; distinct enough that the government’s sum total is not the same as Cameron governing alone. The danger for Clegg was put neatly on Twitter this morning: Q: what would have happened if IBM had actually merged with Apple in the 1980s?  A: IBM.

In short, this young government needs a theory: a narrative of its own, one which draws on that which unites Clegg and Cameron, but is also mindful of those wings of each party—the LibDem left and the Tory right—that  is not comfortable with this unexpected shotgun union. Here are six things I would read to get a quick handle on this unusual liberal-conservative moment. Read more »

Enter Prospect’s exciting new hung parliament 2010 limerick contest!

James Crabtree
9E1C9167758556F8377F41E36AAE6C

An ode to democracy, while we wait

We all need something to do for the next 48 hours, while the Tories and the Lib Dems thrash it out. Already a campaign has started on facebook telling the media to “Cool It“, and give the politicians the time they need.

So what are we to do while they hash it out in smokeless rooms? Prospect suggests a limerick competition.

Our initial efforts below. The best one wins a 3 month trial subscription to the mag, or a book of their choice from our heaving book shelf. Add your own efforts in the comments below.

(After WH Auden)
As the candidates mournfully spun
Death took the innocent young,
The rolling in money,
The screamingly funny,
And a parliament very well hung.
****
I went and voted Lib Dem
There was a change in the air with them
I put on my specs
And wrote down my ‘X’
But we still got a Labour* PM
[*Amend according to coalition taste]
****
A vote that was difficult to call
Announced in many a hall
Only now Brown comes to see
How easy coalition would be
If only he’d lost his Balls.
****
Clegg hints, and the race is now on
For Dave to get spinning anon
To say it’s all fine
They’re willing to dine
At the feast of the new lib-con
****
Come, pull up a tactical pew
There’s lots for labour to do
But how, gentle reader,
To choose a new leader
Twixt Milibands one and then two
****
A result of a different hue
More confused even than ‘92
Lucky for the left
To have such heft
Of not one Miliband, but too
****
It’s midnight in Gordon’s poor soul
The electoral system’s a hole
To suck down his dreams
Of power that gleams
Now black as the dust on his coal
****
Gorgeous George in Poplar and Lime
Had a simply marvelous time
He sent out his spies,
Told fabulous lies
And ended up lathered in slime
……..
In Scotland they’re morally tight.
Don’t offer a swing to the right -
They’ll swig from a glass
And pucker their arse
And shit their traditional shite
……….
Now Mandelson’s man of the hour
Praising the truths of PR
He watches the clock
As he sucks liberal cock
And wonders if this one’ll flower

(After WH Auden)

As the candidates mournfully spun

Death took the innocent young,

The rolling in money,

The screamingly funny,

And a parliament very well hung.

****

Read more »

Five thoughts on the second leadership debate

James Crabtree
Oops... I did it again.

Oops... I did it again.

I watched the debate in a pub in central London, largely filled with people who were supporting the Labour party. Here are some quick thoughts.

1. Clegg won again. It was a weird moment of deja vu: a bit closer than last time, but Clegg’s was still, in my mind, the superior performance. The post-match polls seemed split: some gave it to him outright, others to the other two. But from the half way point—as I said here—I thought Clegg was ahead. Cameron and Brown didn’t do enough at the end to bring it back. Some of Clegg’s answers were especially eye-catching: his thoughtful response on the visit of the Pope for instance, and his admission that “I am not a man of faith.” After the first debate my argument was “Clegg won, therefore Cameron won.” At some basic level this clearly was wrong—I didn’t expect Clegg’s surge to be as powerful as it has been this week (although, to be fair, neither did anyone else.). This time I think no such clever interpretation is needed: Clegg won, and so he won.

Read more »

Five thoughts on the debate

James Crabtree
3 leaders

A Clegg up

I watched the debate last night with a group of people invited to a bar in central London by a PR company. I have five reflections.

1. Clegg won, therefore Cameron “won.” The conventional wisdom before the event was that Clegg was the likely winner, simply by having a third of airtime. That he then proceeded to exceed that expectation was impressive. He had just the right mix of stories, good examples and calculated outrage. But because he won, Cameron also won too—that Clegg is the winner has little electoral significance, and nothing fundamental changed last night in the frame for the election as a whole.

2. Brown did better than expected, but still came in third. In one sense Gordon Brown could have been said to have “needed” something to change in the debate. It is, after all, one of his few opportunities to shift the nature of the race, and get people to “take a fresh look at Labour.” My sense is that didn’t happen. That said, Brown was good in parts, and certainly wasn’t notably the worst of the three performances. He avoided the trap of appearing to patronise his two, younger, likely less knowledgeable opponents; a genuine risk, skilfully avoided.  His was also the strongest message, ramming home the “don’t risk the recovery” line again, and again—which will, I suspect, have sunk in with the audience at home. (By contrast, Cameron’s message, for instance when he mentioned the big society, seemed much less clear.) All that said, Brown’s communicating style is obviously more forced than both his opponents, and his sentences still feel like deeply condensed PowerPoints. It was an adequate performance, but not close to the game changer he needed.
Read more »

Let’s all be friends

James Crabtree

Spamalot: successful musicals need the right mix of new and old teammates

If friends of your friends begin to put on weight, you are likely to do the same—even if you don’t know the people in question, and even if they live hundreds of miles away. Obesity spreads like a fad; it is contagious.

This striking finding about how obesity spreads through social networks was the result of a 30-year study in Massachussetts, as Nicholas A Christakis and James H Fowler note in their new book, Connected: The Surprising Power of Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives (HarperPress). Research shows that the same is true for smoking, and a range of other behaviours and attitudes like drinking, depression, charitable giving, sexual practices—even the decisions to marry, divorce, reproduce, or vote.

Why is this important? Because from healthcare to climate change, governments today face a range of problems where they must persuade people to change their behaviour. But instead of relying on their powers of persuasion, politicians should consider taking a class in “network science.” True, many claims for the power of social networks are based on the hype surrounding websites like Facebook. But the basic idea is simple: people join together in groups with particular patterns of ties, and these patterns then have important effects on the way they behave.

Read more »

Another week, another radical morning for David Cameron

James Crabtree
Comrade Dave gives power to the workers

Comrade Dave gives power to the workers

Oops, he did it again. Having spent years giving the impression of being all “grand narrative and no radical policy,” David Cameron is on a roll. He recently announced plans to publish every government contract, a genuinely radical change. And now he has announced something even more daring: giving all public sector workers the right to take over the body in which they work (reaction from Conservative Home is here, and Phillip Blond’s original idea proposing something very similar to this is here. ) Three thoughts:

The media are on a Tory crisis trip, which looks increasingly odd. The Guardian, unless I’m missing it, haven’t written this up. (George Osborne was on the Today programme talking about it.) Very odd, especially given how yesterday Toby Helm wrote in the Observer that Cameron was beset by a “growing sense of crisis.”

Read more »

Taking Cameron’s TED talk seriously

James Crabtree
from Webcameron to TEDcameron
from Webcameron to TEDcameron

Last night Prospect’s arts and books editor Tom Chatfield and I were lucky enough to be part of the 200 or so people packed into Bafta’s auditorium for the widely trailed “secret” Cameron TED talk. Three reflections.

1. People are missing the radicalism in his open contracts announcement. Cameron last night committed to publish the details of all government contracts. Not just IT contracts, which no one noticed they pledged to do in their IT paper before Christmas. ALL contracts. Every contract any contractor signs with a government department. Cleaners. Train operators. McKinsey being paid to write most of the Dhazi review. McKinsey running large chunks of Northern Rock. All of it. Here is the pledge:

A conservative government will publish all government contracts worth over £25,000 for goods and services in full, including all performance indicators, break clauses and penalty measures. This will enable the public to root out wasteful spending and poorly negotiated contracts, and open up the procurement system to more small businesses.

It’s a bit confusing, because this looks like their existing announcement (to publish all government spending lines over £25,000). But it isn’t. It’s new. I can only imagine what the CBI think about this. (UPDATE: see end of post for more on CBI reaction.) It is, if delivered in this spirit, a genuinely radical transparency measure. Imagine the fuss this is going to cause when everyone who didn’t get the contract pores over each detail, and asks difficult questions? Imagine how much easier it is going to be for outside bodies to track public money—think PFI projects—to see if they are on track, and also to use FOI to track progress? Interesting stuff.

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Mash the state

Tom Chatfield

It all began with a lunch. Tim Berners-Lee, the father of the world wide web, was invited to Chequers in spring 2009. A government taskforce had just published a report aimed at making Britain a digital world leader and technological reform was in the air. Even so, Berners-Lee was surprised at what came next. “The prime minister asked me what Britain should do in order to make the best use of the internet,” he told Prospect in early January. “I said, you should put all your government data onto the web. And he said, let’s do it.” A month later, Berners-Lee flew in from his base at MIT in Boston for a meeting, this time a cup of tea with Brown in the garden at No 10. He brought with him his friend and colleague Nigel Shadbolt, a professor of artificial intelligence at Southampton University, who works on next generation web technology and has piloted his work on public data. Sitting in wicker chairs, they hatched a plan for a new government team, led by Berners-Lee, to unlock Britain’s public data.

On 21st January this year, less than 12 months later, the government launched a website to do just that (you may have seen the television adverts). Modelled on a similar effort by President Obama, data.gov.uk brings together over 2,500 public data sets, ranging from abandoned vehicles and A&E stats to child tax credits and carbon indicators. And Brown has promised, in a few months’ time, to open up the jewel in Britain’s data crown: the maps made by Ordnance Survey.

“It can be tricky to explain why Tim’s work matters so much,” says dotcom entrepreneur turned government adviser Martha Lane Fox. “But the data he has been able to release can reorder the balance of power between the citizen and the state.” Such claims are often made for “e-government,” whose hype is traditionally exceeded only by the price tags attached to the (often disastrous) IT projects undertaken in its name. But Berners-Lee’s work has the potential to be different, relying as it does on an unprecedented combination of technology experts, amateurs and businesses like Dr Foster or Experian to take the new information and present it usefully. This helps people make better decisions, underpins information-age businesses, and—because it to some degree redraws the boundary between people and government—may also change the terms of politics. Yet perhaps the most remarkable fact is that it happened at all. Others have tried to unlock Britain’s data, only to run into walls of official obstinacy, vested interest and political indifference. So how did Berners-Lee do it?

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Whitehall’s web revolution: the inside story

James Crabtree

Above: Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the world wide web


This story is now line for subscribers to read, while an exclusive interview with Tim Berners-Lee and Nigel Shadbolt is available to read free, here.

Before working as an editor at Prospect, I was briefly a civil servant. The experience taught me that most civil servants knew nothing about data, and the few that did were rarely listened to. Most were masters at prevarication when anyone tried to suggest that they open up vital information about schools, housing, health services, to the public; the crown jewel in Britain’s data crown, Ordnance Survey, was especially jealously guarded. So I was a surprised—shocked, even—to learn just before Christmas that the deal was done. An infrastructure for the mass release of data into the public domain was in place: in a few months they would be giving it away for free. How had this minor policy miracle happened? Three words, I was told: Tim Berners-Lee. It seemed the inventor of the world wide web, and one of Gordon Brown’s boldest and unlikeliest appointments of the last year, had winkled open the treasure chest.

For the last six months he and his friend Nigel Shadbolt have been leading an unlikely, quiet crusade inside Whitehall. This morning both both Berners-Lee and I discussed the implications of what they have been up to on the Today programme.

Some of Britain’s most impressive internet policy experts had long been trying to break down this particular door. Ex-MP Richard Allan. Cabinet Office Minister Tom Watson. Internet gurus Tom Steinberg, and Tom Loosemore. Former Number 10 policy advisor William Perrin. All bounced back dazed when they tried shoulder charging the Ordnance Survey’s door, as if tripped up by a canny geographer’s sandal on their run up. So my colleague Tom Chatfield and I decided we that needed to find out exactly how the man who invented the web had managed to reinvent the rules of British data.

The story we uncovered will be on the cover of Prospect magazine’s next issue (out on Thursday 28th January). It is a tale of star power, serendipity, vision, persistence and an almost unprecedented convergence of all levels of government. It is the best sort of policy story: one where the policy works, the good guys win, and public interest is served.

The task of doing the digging fell into two parts. First, we had to talk to Tim Berners-Lee himself—no easy task, given we wrote asking for an interview and received a note back from his organisation saying it was totally impossible. But friends in government put in a good word and doors opened. Just after the New Year, Tom Chatfield (a web geek of sorts) found himself Skype-interviewing Berners-Lee, for more than an hour, about his frenetic six months at the heart of British government.

Talking to the inventor of the web is a dizzying experience, especially when you’re actually using his creation to host the conversation. It’s rather like picking up a book and then leaning over to tell Gutenberg what you think about type, or watching The Wire while sitting next to John Logie Baird. Except, of course, that Tim Berners-Lee is still with us, and, as Tom discovered, takes a restless delight in the future of his creation. Isn’t there a temptation just to sit back, Tom asked, and cruise around the world collecting honorary degrees? The idea didn’t even seem to have occurred. For Berners-Lee, the future of the web is just too important, too urgent and, perhaps above all, too interesting to be neglected.

It was easy to see how this man makes things happen: his viewpoint was never less than global, and his ambition every bit as total as his original vision for “phase one” of the world wide web. Connecting 1.5bn people to each other has been, clearly, only the beginning. There was a touching note of pride in his recollections of family holidays spent in England, finding beaches to visit thanks to closely-clutched Ordnance Survey maps, but this had nothing to do with nostalgia: it was about the power of information, and what he believes can be done if the force of public data is properly unleashed.

For Berners-Lee it was the argument that mattered–as he might say, the need to “get raw data now.” But the context was not easy. Here is how our story begins, from the introduction to the essay:

“It can be tricky to explain why Tim’s work matters so much,” says dotcom entrepreneur turned government adviser Martha Lane Fox. “But the data he has been able to release can reorder the balance of power between the citizen and the state.” Such claims are often made for “e-government,” whose hype is traditionally exceeded only by the price tags attached to the (often disastrous) IT projects undertaken in its name. But Berners-Lee’s work has the potential to be different, relying as it does on an unprecedented combination of technology experts, amateurs and businesses like Dr Foster or Experian to take the new data and present it usefully. This helps people make better decisions, underpins information-age businesses, and—because it to some degree redraws the boundary between people and government—may also change the terms of politics. Yet perhaps the most remarkable fact is that it happened at all. Others have tried to unlock Britain’s data, only to run into walls of official obstinacy, vested interest and political indifference. So how did Berners-Lee do it?

Finding out the answer to this was the real work: the details of the meetings with cabinet ministers, the tense Whitehall battles, the crucial presentation to the Cabinet, and so on. We spoke at length to Berners-Lee’s friend and co-appointee to the data initiative, Nigel Shadbolt, and had carefully worded off-the-record chats and “steers” from officials from many different government departments, political figures and well-connected outsiders. And it was here we found the story.

****

In their exclusive story of how the man who invented the web broke open Britain’s government, only in Prospect on 28th January, James Crabtree and Tom Chatfield reveal:

The inside story on how Tim Berners Lee and Nigel Shadbolt opened up Britain’s secretive, closed data culture

How a single, tragic accident convinced Britain’s top politicians of the wisdom of data-mashing

Why a single Word document sent to “TBL” suddenly made the centre of government stop

How a ministerial trip to see President Obama’s team finally opened the door for Tim Berner-Lee’s vision

How Tim and Nigel both believe their vision for public data could incubate the next “phase 2″ of the web, while also redrawing the boundary between citizens and government