Poor Rafa

Why are the press so obsessed with what happens to Rafa Benitez? There are two reasons. The first is obvious and therefore uninteresting. Liverpool are a great club and many expected this to be their breakthrough year but yet again the wheels have come off (domestically, at least). He's under huge pressure and is unlikely to keep his job because only winning the Champions League will guarantee Liverpool a place in the Champions League next season and they need the money to pay the interest on their huge loans.

So far, so straightforward. The other reason is because what's happening to Benitez is a sign of the times. We still like to think that managers are there for a long time. Think of Revie and Shankly, of Bill Nicholson and Busby. Or, more recently, Wenger and Ferguson. We all know that bad (or unlucky) managers don't last long. But successful managers are there for the long haul. Everyone knows that. But the rules are changing. Look at Mourinho. One of the all-time great successes and he's gone. Just like that. Benitez is a nicer guy and has been hugely successful -- finalists in the Champions League twice in three years. No one other manager in the Premier League has managed that. OK, they're 5th in the League but they'll overtake Everton if they win their game in hand. But he's on the ropes.

The days of the long-term manager are over. Ferguson and Wenger are the last of a breed. Why? Because times are changing. Specifically, the people who own clubs are changing and the amount of money they need -- to build big new stadiums which wll in turn bring in more money, and to buy stars who wll attract TV audiences and sponsors -- has moved into another dimension. There are huge bank loans to pay off, enormous wage bills to pay, and Europe is the biggest cash cow in town. Getting to the Semis of the Champions League is no longer a nice thing to have on a club's CV. It is a financial necessity.

That's in the short term. Then there is the medium-term picture. The game is about to take another big change. The Premier League's greedhead plan for a '39th game' may have been seen off for now, but there will be more changes round the corner. As that great football pundit Karl Marx knew the needs of big money always lead to big changes, not just economic, but throughout culture and society. The big changes will either mean a European Super-League or some kind of global League. More likely the former. At least for now. And when that happens it will be like musical chairs. When the music stops there won't be enough chairs for everyone.

And the music will be stopping pretty soon. Five years from now? Ten? And when it stops you will have to be one of the Big Players. Nothing less will do. The Big Four or perhaps the big six or seven. So everyone wants to be in position for that moment. It's no good having a bit of a slump now, as Man Utd did after Busby or Liverpool did after Paisley and Dalglish. Chelsea will remember what it was like to be one of the also-rans, a goodish bet for a good Cup run but that's about it. That was enough then. It's not enough now. Suddenly everything matters (well, no, not the Carling Cup). You have to have a top manager, a big stadium, stars (consider the image rights alone) and a big squad (that means four good strikers not two).

A good run in the Champions League, and a top four place now gives you a chance of that next year at least, means Liverpool can afford to keep Torres, buy Mascherano, keep building your new stadium, spend another £40-50 million over the summer. Failing to qualify for the Champions League next season and an early knock-out this year and you can say goodbye to some of that. That's why clubs like Leeds and Newcastle have spent a small fortune trying to break into that charmed circle. The problem is that a benign circle quickly turns vicious: spiralling debts, huge wage bills, no European income (or, God forbid, Premier League TV rights). We all know where that ends up. That's the big picture. Poor Rafa.