Fear and loathing at the Australian Open

The best TV sports at the moment are not on BBC1 or ITV. You have to press the BBC's red (or sometimes blue) button to watch the Africa Cup and the Australian Open. Both have offered a tantalising glimpse into the future.

First, Melbourne. Whatever happened to Australian tennis? No Australian has won the Australian Open since 1976. To younger readers, or even middle-aged readers, this may seem no deal. But remember that the Australians dominated their Open for decades. They owned it. In the 31 years after the war, 1946-76, Australians won their Open 27 times. Roy Emerson won six times, Rosewall four times, Rod Laver three times and another ten Australian players won it once or twice. Up until the mid-1960s the Open was usually an all-Australian affair: in the first 20 Opens after the war, the defeated finalist was an Australian too.

But in the last thirty years, not once has an Australian won and apart from Lleyton Hewitt no one has even reached the final in the last twenty years. Not since Pat Cash has any Australian got a look in. For such a sporting nation with a perfect climate for tennis, this is a disaster. This year was par for the course. Lleyton Hewitt squeaked through against Baghdatis and was then whupped by Djokovic in straight sets. As for Australian women, forget it. There hasn't been an Australian winner in the Women's Singles since the glory days of the 1970s (Margaret Court, Evonne Goolagong et al).



The Australians aren't the only tennis fans licking their wounds. This year only one American made it through to the Men's Quarter-Finals and only the Williams sisters got to the Women's Quarter's. Whoever wins the Finals this weekend, it will be a European. And this is the big story in world tennis. It's not just a case of the changing of the guard as Will Skidelsky rightly points out in his recent First Drafts piece. In women's tennis, the guard now comes from east Europe; the top young men are either from the Balkans, France or Spain. The days of English-speaking tennis bestriding the world, that post-war hegemony of Australians, South Africans and Americans has gone. At least for the moment.

There is even talk of Tennis Australia losing their Grand Slam tournament. Australia is so peripheral to today's world game, that there is talk of the 4th Grand Slam going to Shanghai. There are several reasons. Crowd behaviour is one. Punch-ups between ethnic groups, drunks being escorted from the ground, it doesn't make good headlines. Timing is another. If you wanted to watch Federer lose today you had to be at your set in the late morning in the UK or up early on the East Coast or up in the middle of the night in California. This doesn't make for happy TV executives and unhappy TV executives tend not to fork out loads of money. Finally, the Australian Open is bizarre and throws up lots of surprises. Tsonga is not a one-off. Last year, Fernando Gonzalez got to the Final, the year before the then unknown and certainly unseeded Baghdatis. In 2001, 2002 and 2003 low-ranking seeds made it to the Final, the most obscure being the German 31st seed, Rainer Schutller. Gonzalez and Baghdatis are still very much around but the others have pretty much disappeared. This may not seem strange, but compare it with the other Grand Slams. Wimbledon has been won by the 1st seed eight times in the last ten years (and one of the other times was only because they had seeded Federer down at number 4). The last four Wimbledon finals have been between the no. 1 seed (well, Federer) and the number 2 seed (Nadal or Roddick). Only two finalists at Wimbledon in the last ten years have not been seeded and both Philippoussis and Ivanisevic had form and were previous Grand Slam finalists.

The US Open tells the same story. It's been won by a top seed (1-6) in nine of the last 10 years and the one exception was Pete Sampras in 2002, seeded at 17. Only once in a decade has an unseeded player reached the US Final (Philippoussis again). And in Paris, only once in the last ten years has a non-seed won the French Open.

So what is it with the Australian Open? Is it because it's so early in the year, before the top players have got back into the swing? You could say that it's refreshing to have little-known players like Thomas Johansson, Kafelnikov and Petr Korda winning a Grand Slam. But try telling that to a TV executive when you're selling rights. You try pitching a Kafelnikov vs Thomas Enqvist or Petr Korda vs Marcelo Rios final to the networks. Even this year, Djokovic's handsome victory has deprived the BBC of a Federer vs Tsonga David and Goliath dream final. So don't bet your Societe Generale shares on Australia still having the 4th Grand Slam ten years down the road. And certainly don't bet them on an Australian winning it.

More significant is this year's Africa Cup of Nations. The reason the BBC is giving it so much coverage is because they know that times have changed. many of the Premiership's biggest names are taking part -- Drogba and Essien from Chelsea, Kolo Toure, Eboue and Song from Arsenal, Kanu from Portsmouth and Martins from Newcastle, Yakubu from Everton and El Hadji Diouf from Bolton. The only reason Adebayor is not playing is because Togo failed to qualify. These are the players we know. Then there are the possible stars of the future, like Manchester United's new Angolan signing, Manucho. For most of the 20th century, world football was dominated by west and central Europe and South America. Now things are changing. Fast. The influx of European coaches to Africa and Asia, and the arrival of young African stars in Europe, are signs of the change. In 2010 we will see the first World Cup to be held in Africa. It may take a few more years, but by 2020 or 2030, European football will be dominated by African players. Press the red button and you will have a ringside seat.

Sport is usually presented to us as being about individuals. Of course, this is largely true. But there are larger international stories which the pundits tend to ignore. The decline of Australian tennis and the rise of African football, among them.