Grenades seized by the Israelis last November aboard MV Francop, a container ship on course from Iran to Syria
“Netanyahu thinks he is the superpower,” remarked Bill Clinton bitterly in 1996, “and we are here to do whatever he requires.” Today, as the Americans and the Israelis refuse to budge on the fraught issue of settlements in East Jerusalem, this statement rings truer than ever. US-Israeli relations are at a historic low. But the current standoff is about much more than settlement-building. Underlying it is Washington’s concern that Netanyahu’s repeated gestures of provocation—like the establishment of Jewish heritage sites in the Palestinian territories—are drawing the region towards a conflict unprecedented since 1948. And this time there is a nuclear dimension.
The widely-reported Israeli “insult” to the US—publishing tenders for the construction of apartments in the contested territory of East Jerusalem just as Vice President Joe Biden was in the country announcing peace talks—was considered so audacious that Obama’s tough response has been largely supported, even in overwhelmingly pro-Israel America. The same was the case for Clinton in 1996. This time, however, US-Israeli differences run far deeper. The muffled drums of war have been gathering volume in the middle east for some time, and Obama is seizing the chance to send a clear message: that the US will not be drawn into conflict by the Israelis.
Much has changed as a result of Israel’s near-defeat at the hands of Hezbollah in 2006. Traditionally, the Israel Defence Force (IDF) has enjoyed a mythical status, based on a history of devastating operations such as the surprise attack on the Egyptian air force at the start of the Six Day War of 1967 (the entire fleet was destroyed before they could even leave the ground); the commando incursion into Entebbe in 1976 to rescue the Jewish hostages (Netanyahu’s elder brother was the only commando killed in the raid); and the audacious bombing of Saddam’s secret nuclear reactors in 1981. Not any more. Filled with renewed confidence, Hezbollah has since been resurfacing the roads near Israel’s border; next time the sabre is rattled, men-at-arms may be transported with far greater ease and efficiency. Israel, in turn, has intensified flights over Lebanese airspace. Ehud Barak, Israel’s defence minister, gave these operations a chilling significance: “we see Hezbollah expanding inside Lebanon and its growing influence, political and otherwise,” he said. “We wish to make clear to the Lebanese leadership that we see everything, and we will hold the parties which cause increased tension responsible.”
Yet such threats ring increasingly hollow. Although Israel attempted to restore the IDF’s battered reputation through the use of awesome force in Gaza in 2009, what these school-bully tactics really indicated was how vulnerable Israel is feeling. The assassination of the Hamas gun-runner in Dubai in January, which made headlines across the world, is another case in point. Every petty shoplifter is aware of the need to avoid CCTV, yet these highly-trained Mossad assassins neglected to avoid the security cameras. Could there be any doubt that a breadcrumb trail was being laid to Jerusalem? Clearly, the Israelis are desperate to gain the upper hand in the propaganda war. They are jittery and starting to overcompensate.
And with good reason. In a development that has far-reaching implications—and is of grave concern to Washington—the middle-eastern powers are beginning to align to a degree never seen before against the Jewish state. In February, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) convened the latest in a series of meetings of all the major players in Palestinian militancy, seeking to reconcile their differences in order to unite against Israel. This has been mirrored throughout the region. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has started to warn, for the first time, of an alliance between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas in the event of war.
During talks with his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad, the Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated that “we need to put an end to the Zionist regime once and for all.” Emboldened by this, the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem delivered a stark warning to Israel. “I tell them, stop acting like thugs,” he said. “Do not test the resolve of Syria. You Israelis, you know that war at this time will reach your cities. If such a war breaks out… it will indeed be total war.”
It’s impossible to tell how much of this is bluff. Nonetheless, Israel’s choice of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh for assassination in Dubai indicates that the strengthening of their enemies’ alliances is what most worries them: Al-Mabhouh was responsible for smuggling arms from Iran to Gaza, and as such is symbolic of this new level of cooperation.
When pressing for tougher sanctions against Iran in Febraury, Netanyahu’s logic was revealing. “At least we will know it’s been tried,” he said. In his mind, at least, it appears that military confrontation with Iran is inevitable. He has previously claimed in Moscow that “we are not planning any wars.” Ahmadinejad, on the same day, said Israel is “seeking to start a war next spring or summer.” Obama’s biggest concern is that all of these statements may be right. After all, everyone knows that Israel prefers not to wage war in the winter.
Read Jonathan Power on Obama’s foreign policy headache on the Prospect blog
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Comments (17):
The main reason why the conflict against Hezbollah wasn’t a success was that it was against small bands of guerillas, a foe that all standing armies struggle to defeat.
Israel is now at peace with Egypt and Jordan so doesn’t have to worry about those borders. Its armed forces are way beyond in technological capability any of its remaining enemies who have mismanaged their economies over years.
Meanwhile Syria’s Baathist government’s sole reason for legitimacy is its unyielding anti-Israeli line. With a US-supported Iraq on one side and a relatively hostile Lebanon it has most to worry that military defeat would bring it down.
Meanwhile Iran is spoiling for a fight to strengthen itself internally but God help us all if the Israelis do lose patience and go after the nuclear reactors in Bushehr etc. $200 a barrel oil anyone?
But overall, the Israelis are way too powerful militarily to be truly threatened like they were in 1973, ‘67, ‘56 etc.
It is difficult to reason with people who argue that God has given them the right to occupy a certain tract of land.
How does one deal with religious fundamentalism?
Paul the Goy:
“Meanwhile Iran is spoiling for a fight…”
Note how the lies are slipped so casually into the conversation…
In 2050 Jewish Israelis will become a minority in Israel as the Arab Israelis overtake them. In the minds of the Israelis it is therefore NECESSARY to have a war (the sooner the better) under the fog of which they will seek to expel the Arabs. Given their racist doctrine there is no alternative.
Will Zionists suck innocents into the future war, which is looming? Moshe Dayan said, years ago, that Israel needs to act like mad dogs. We know Israel is the world leader on Game Theory, but ultimately it will not be a game. Petraeus has pointed out that Israeli actions impact on security in the USA, this also is undoubtetly true for the UK too.
Recently huge numbers of bunker busting bombs were shipped to the British Indian Ocean Territory, of Diego Garcia, but which is leased to the USA (more shame). That is the sort of entanglement that draws in more idealistic moslem volunteers. If we did not have such involvements our streets would be safer!
Yes Indeed Ranulph. Fie for shame on us!
Standing with those 5 million wicked Jewish bullies, against those hard-done-by, put upon 300 million arabs, who only want to exercise their basic right to wipe out the population of Israel, then pretend it never happened.
This to be later followed by an attempt to force their stinking religion down the throats of the rest of the world’s
population backed up with nuclear weapons.
Are you really such a coward? Does some huffing and puffing from a gaggle of anti-semites, religious fanatics and fascists really scare you so much that you are willing to see the only functioning democracy in the middle east go down to protect your own miserable hide?
How much of a groveling slave will you be prepared to become when they come for you next?
Andrew! What an amazing comment.
Well done, Sir, don’t bother yourself with all that making sense, simply ‘tell it like it is’.
Marvellous to behold.
See my earlier posting.
Rather than address the issues, Andrew indulges in a rabid attack on my alledged lack of guts by my refusing to be sucked into a war mentality. Assinations, illegal building and settlements, the Israeli atom bomb, inhuman treatment of Palestinians, a defiant speech to AIPAC (which is more powerful than the NRA), these are some of the issues. Instead, i invite readers to read the new and far more moderate jewish lobby group, with a mushrooming support base, which is at the expense of AIPAC’s. jstreet.org
See my earlier posting.
Rather than address the real issues Andrew indulges in a rabid attack on my alleged lack of guts, in refusing to be sucked into his war mentality.
Instead of slavishly following the AIPAC line(they are are more powerful than the NRA) i invite readers to read the new and moderade, jewish lobby group: jstreet. Their membership is mushrooming.
Some of the real issues are illegal settlements, their atom bomb, the inhuman treatment of Palestines, defiant addressing of issues, assinations in foreign countries, and general exceptionalism.
Rather than addressing the real issues Andrew delivers a rabid attack on an earlier postee.
Instead of slavishly following the AIPAC line(they are more powerful than the NRA) i suggest readers sample a new and far more moderate jewish lobby group, jstreet, which has a mushrooming membership at the expense of AIPAC.
Some of the real issues are illegal settlements, assinations in foreign countries, the inhuman treatment of Palestines, the Israeli atom bomb, and general exceptionalism.
Syria will be the next, after Iran.
Israelis must decide:
Is Israel a democracy?
or
A Jewish state?
With the current population trends it cannot have it both ways unless it resorts to ethnic cleansing of Palestinian Arabs from Israel proper.
Mr. Simons:
\…….Much has changed as a result of Israel’s near-defeat at the hands of Hezbollah in 2006. Traditionally, the Israel Defence…..\
This whole article is a total crock – just anti Israel propaganda at its worst. The above statement is remarkably wrong. After all, did Hezbollah try to enter the war and help Hamas during Operation Cast Lead? Hezbollah brought tremendous destruction down on Lebanon after the Hezbollah provocation led to war. Did Syria retaliate against Israel when Israel bombed their nuclear facilities in 2007?
Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran have absolutely no capability to send armies against Israel since Israel reigns supreme in the air.
Yes, rocket attacks against Israel would be effective, but the terrorist organizations and their terror supporting states (Syria and Iran) would suffer a horrendous air campaign against their infrastructure, and military targets.
Wishing for the annihilation of Israel will not make it happen, Mr. Simons
Mr. Simons:
“…….Much has changed as a result of Israel’s near-defeat at the hands of Hezbollah in 2006. Traditionally, the Israel Defence…..”
This whole article is a total crock – just anti Israel propaganda at its worst. The above statement is remarkably wrong. After all, did Hezbollah try to enter the war and help Hamas during Operation Cast Lead? Hezbollah brought tremendous destruction down on Lebanon after the Hezbollah provocation led to war. Did Syria retaliate against Israel when Israel bombed their nuclear facilities in 2007?
Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran have absolutely no capability to send armies against Israel since Israel reigns supreme in the air.
Yes, rocket attacks against Israel would be effective, but the terrorist organizations and their terror supporting states (Syria and Iran) would suffer a horrendous air campaign against their infrastructure, and military targets.
Wishing for the annihilation of Israel will not make it happen, Mr. Simons
So Israel is weakened and its enemies emboldened. Does this make war more likely, as the headline implies, or less likely?
The military conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza began when Israel responded to provocation with military force. The current metric makes Israel less likely, presumably, to respond militarily to provocation such as rocket attacks in future.
The suggestion that war is becoming more likely appears designed to conjure up the image of an arab invasion of Israel. Surely this is patently absurd?
Israel remains the regional military superpower, together with Turkey. This is unlikely to change in the near-term future, although the coming Iranian bomb will make things interesting. What has changed is the moral status of the IDF within Israel. The IDF is no-longer regarded as unproblematically noble, as it once was. I would guess that the chances of regional war in the next 15-18 months are relatively slim.
Israel’s last war (Gaza 2008-2009) was in the winter.
I would not be so quick to write off the IDF as you seem to be. Hardly any combat troops were employed during the Gaza incursion in relation to the numbers available.
I would have liked this article to have fleshed out its claims with far more hard facts concerning the combat readiness or otherwise of the IDF’s major fighting units.
It is hard to understand many readers’ gleeful hatred against Israel — a tiny Westernized country trying to survive amongst brutal hordes who of Moslems and Arabs in particular who already own 1/6 of the world’s inhabitable land and treat their own folks brutally.
The irony is especially rich coming from a nation which ruled much of the world with an iron-fist not to long ago (even hanging their own 7 year olds for stealing a loaf of bread!) and which went to war thousands of miles away over some tiny islands (i.e. the Falklands).
For shame!!!