You know the Democrats are in deep trouble when they lose a senate seat in Massachusetts, among the most liberal states in the country. Only 15 months ago, the Republicans were fighting to stay ahead in the red state of Idaho. Now they have won the special election for the seat held by the late Teddy Kennedy. Democrats have no one to blame but themselves. They had feared voters might mistakenly opt for the beguilingly named Joe Kennedy (no relation), an independent candidate with libertarian views. But Kennedy got 22,000 votes—less than a fifth of the margin by which Republican Scott Brown beat his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley.
US voters, or at least the independents who tend to decide elections, have become volatile. This group voted two to one for Obama in 2008. Now they are two to one against him. In the latest National Journal poll, only 39 per cent of Americans say they will vote for him in 2012, while 50 per cent say they “probably or definitely” won’t.
Back in May 2009, Obama warned staffers that they had little time to enact their agenda. The worry back then was the November 2010 midterms, in which the Dems looked likely to lose a number of senate seats. Given the special election and the polls, this is now almost inevitable.
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