How do we know that carbon emissions are rising? The worldwide system of measurement is open to error and abuse, and only half of global emissions are properly accounted for.
Industrialised (Annex 1) nations report their domestic CO2 inventories annually to the UNFCCC: this represents about 50 per cent of global emissions. Non-Annex 1 countries like China, India and Brazil are expected to report as well (though the least developed nations, like Bangladesh and Madagascar, can submit at their discretion). But their reports are sporadic and do not undergo the same review procedure as Annex 1 parties.
Countries estimate their emissions from fuel sales and energy demand—for example, household heating needs, gas and petrol sales—and take into account any “clean energy” developments. The problem, though, is what is measured and what is not. They report on their territorial emissions: those produced within their boundaries or under their jurisdiction. But does this necessarily reflect a country’s environmental impact? It excludes, for example, fuel sales for international aviation and shipping (responsible for about 10 per cent of global emissions) as well as fuel used in military operations abroad.
Worse still, emissions associated with imports are omitted. A sizeable portion of Britain’s heavy industry has moved overseas in the past few decades, but though we no longer manufacture many products, we still use and import them, often from non-Annex 1 countries like India and China. So our accountability for the CO2 associated with our lifestyles is simply exported to other countries—and mainly those without any binding emissions reduction target.
Any plan to cut emissions, particularly one that involves trading emissions permits internationally, fails if you can’t verify the data. But how do you force countries to adopt compatible measuring methods or even, say, comply with the demands of a super regulator? How would one insist that China does this, for instance? There is technology available for cross-border monitoring, but using it without permission would further erode trust.
This is why securing an agreement on how to measure emissions (specifically what should be counted, and where) may be the most important, yet least publicly recognised, step in tackling climate change. The chances of this happening at Copenhagen, however, are slim.
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Good points. May be a moot point thought.
The CO2 rate of increase is measured both with terrestrial stations and by satellite instrumentation. Precise measurements are taken, and the total atmospheric CO2 amount is well know … and rising at about 3.5%/year.
At this rate (and increasing) atmospheric CO2 will double in 20 years (or less).
We also know with absolute certainty that CO2 levels have not been this high in 20 MILLION (yes, MILLION) years (Tripati, Science, Oct 2009, UCLA), with ave temps and ocean levels both higher. Just give it some time, we won’t be around to ask our children, if any, what they think of us.