Above: China needs a new economic model—but can its leaders deliver one?
On 1st October 2009 China will mark the 60th anniversary of Mao Zedong’s proclamation of the People’s Republic. The celebration will be orchestrated by film director Zhang Yimou, who ran the spectacular opening and closing ceremonies of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Communist party leader and state president Hu Jintao will extol the country’s success, as economic figures show it roaring out of 2008’s economic downturn. Enthusiasts for the Chinese model will again proclaim it on course to overtake the west.
They have much to point to given the scale of growth in the past 30 years, and the economic reforms begun by Deng Xiaoping in 1978 remain overwhelmingly popular. China’s national pride is as intense as Britain’s at the height of the Victorian age. But Hu and his successors face a string of challenges on a scale that dwarf those of other world leaders. The disparities between the coastal and inland regions, and the country’s wealth gap, are wide. The task of restructuring the economy to boost consumption and lessen dependency on exports and infrastructure spending is only partially addressed. Health, education and welfare services barely function, despite a regime supposedly flush with cash.
These problems could well provoke the social instability the regime so fears; there are tens of thousands of grassroots protests each year. In this communist-ruled nation, workers receive a smaller share of national income than in the capitalist US. Last year saw 700,000 official labour disputes, reflecting poor treatment of staff and high-handed management. Corruption is endemic, and crime on an upward path. Progress cleaning up air, water and land has been patchy. Individual liberties have advanced, but the suppression of political dissent has increased, and legal reform has even been reversed—with judges told that their first duty is to serve the Communist party. Violence has again been used to keep Tibet and Xinjiang under Beijing’s control.
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