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John Gieve – financial fall guy?

JONATHAN_FORD  —  2nd July 2008

John Gieve’s participation in our financial roundtable turned out to be virtually his last hurrah as deputy governor of the Bank of England in charge of financial stability. A couple of days after Prospect was published, news leaked out that he would be stepping down from the post next spring, two years early. What’s more, the news emerged in the most humiliating way possible for Gieve—on the eve of the annual Mansion House speech, when the Bank governor and the chancellor of the exchequer address the bigwigs of the City. It looked as if Gieve had been made the fall guy for the financial crisis.

His departure may gratify those who argue—like Mark Hannam, another roundtable participant—that regulators as well as bankers should face the chop when things go awry in financial markets. But there is a school of thought that Gieve did a more than reasonable job. Philip Stephens took up the cudgels on Gieve’s behalf in the FT on 1st July, pointing out that Gieve’s performance was perhaps more sure-footed than that of Mervyn King (who has recently been reappointed to his post as Bank governor). Gieve spotted much earlier than his boss that the severity of the crisis necessitated a major injection of liquidity into financial markets. King, Stephens points out, was at the time still hung up on the idea of not rewarding bankers who had taken foolish risks—even as a financial Chernobyl was unfolding around him.

That said, these differences don’t seem to have had much impact on the outcome. King got it in the end. Would things have been different had he taken Gieve’s advice sooner? In the roundtable, Gieve himself pretty much pooh-poohed the idea.

But if Gieve did a pretty good job in what were very difficult circumstances, it is also right that he should go early. The biggest lack in the crisis—from the perspective of the authorities—was early intelligence about stresses in the markets. The Bank now intends to correct that lack. Its expanded financial stability role will involve monitoring what banks are doing to gauge emerging risks. That requires someone with a deep knowledge of the markets, something that Gieve—a former civil servant—lacks.

King should now replace Gieve with Paul Tucker, a Bank insider with the necessary independence of mind and market expertise. This is clearly what he wants to do. But worryingly, the treasury may try to frustrate King. It seems to favour the alternative of appointing an old City hand—even though this would run the risk of the Bank being captured by the very people it is supposed to be regulating. Stephens’s article—which implied King may have been complicit in Gieve’s departure—may have unwittingly handed the mandarins some ammo in this fight.

The one thing surrounding Gieve’s departure which does deserve criticism is the way it was handled. Gieve was an able and loyal servant of the Bank and was entitled to leave with his dignity intact. Whoever leaked his departure in the way they did, and for whatever reason, paid him back in very poor coin.

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Comments (1):

  1. Mark says:

    Just for the record John, while I strongly support the principle that financial regulators and central bankers should be held accountable for their failings, John Gieve’s departure from the Bank of England does not gratify me in any way. Rather it highlights the fact that the person most responsible for the Bank of England’s recent failings has just embarked on a second five year term of office. An important part of the accountability principle is that the appropriate person should be held accountable, which does not appear to be the case in this instance.

    On your second point, I do not think that the Bank of England should appoint yet another insider to a senior role. It should bring in someone who, first, has some practical experience of financial markets and current risk management techniques, and, second, has independence of mind that has not been compromised by a long career working at the Bank. Such a move would have the additonal benefit of sending a signal to the bright young economists working in Threadneedle Street that if they want to make it to the top they should get out into the markets and prove themselves first, perhaps returning to a senior job at the Bank later in their careers. This would be far better for them and for the rest of us, than staying-put and playing the in-house patronage game for the next 20 years.

    Mark Hannam