Gordon Brown’s attempt to erect his “big tent” in the centre of British politics continues. From sipping tea with Margaret Thatcher to taking on Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs as advisers, Brown has worked hard to further his “post-party” politics. Yet the prime minister, and his unhappy opponents, may be forced to take more radical steps to forge cross-party co-operation after the next election. Opinion polls suggest a hung parliament is more likely than at any point in the last 25 years. Long-term electoral trends also point in this direction—the total share of the vote received by Labour and the Conservatives has fallen in every general election since 1992. At the same time, the Liberal Democrats have steadily increased their presence in Westminster, reaching 62 MPs in 2005.
But Westminster remains unprepared for a hung parliament. There is little agreement on the political or institutional implications, and only limited historical precedent. On the other hand, all three parties have acquired experience of coalition and minority government away from Westminster. The experiences of the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly provide clues as to how politics would change if the next election proved indecisive.
A hung parliament could result in even greater political promiscuity. When circumstances demand, parties find it easy to set aside tribalism. Following the 2007 Welsh election, previously unthinkable coalition options emerged—the “rainbow coalition” of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, or the “red-green alliance” of Labour and Plaid Cymru. The implication for Westminster is that a Lib-Lab coalition is not necessarily the only—or even the most likely—response to a hung parliament.
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