Few respected scientists now doubt that the world is warming, that man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are largely responsible, and that there will be significant further warming over the coming century. The pace of change and the impact on the climate of specific regions is debated. But it is clear that global warming is a reality, and that severe consequences—ranging from rising sea levels to the spread of tropical diseases—are likely.
Yet despite wide backing for the recent Stern review on the economics of global warming, the case for significant early action to combat it is still contested by opponents, such as Nigel Lawson (see his “Against Kyoto,” Prospect online, November 2005), who see themselves as introducing economic realities into an overly emotional debate. The House of Lords economic affairs committee produced a report in July 2005 questioning the severity of the problem. Bjørn Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus project has argued that offsetting climate change should be a low priority compared with other global challenges, such as Aids. Business lobby groups argue that measures to reduce emissions would harm competitiveness. The Kyoto protocol, in particular, is often attacked as both ineffective and harmful, constraining rich-country emissions but leaving China and India free to use low-cost energy to gain competitive advantage. But these arguments are unconvincing. There is a sound economic case for early action to address climate change. And while Kyoto is an imperfect policy in an imperfect world, its broad approach is right.
(A reminder: the UN framework convention on climate change, signed in 1992, committed the signatories—including the US, China and India—to the principle of action to combat climate change. Within this framework, the 1997 Kyoto protocol committed developed countries, but not developing ones, to cut emissions by, on average, 5.2 per cent below the 1990 level by the end of the first phase in 2010. All developed countries, apart from the US and Australia, are committed by treaty to achieving their targets.)
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