Although the government refuses to discuss migration numbers, the issue is likely to be forced up the agenda. This short article provides some of the background that should be required for an informed debate. Working from official projections, I have quantified the impact of immigration on the total population of Britain and on its composition.
The chart shows projections of the future population of Britain under various assumptions about net migration. With one exception, all projections are taken from the website of the government actuary’s department. The curve labelled “zero net migration” shows what would happen if there were no net inflow of people into the country—if as many people left each year as entered. The high migration curve shows what would happen if net immigration were to average 205,000 a year. The curve labelled “extrapolation” is my own estimate of future population if net immigration were to average 223,000 a year. This is the rate actually observed in 2004, the latest year for which figures are available.
With zero net migration, and the assumed birth and death rates, population would rise slightly for a time and then fall away at an accelerating pace. With net migration of 85,000 a year, population would increase for some decades and then stabilise at around 65m towards the end of the century. With net migration at the rate of 223,000 a year, the population would reach 74m by 2051 and continue rising strongly thereafter. This figure—74m—is 16m greater than the 2051 population figure under the zero net migration assumption. Part of the difference is explained by the inflow of migrants and part of it by the fact that immigration would increase the number of children born in this country.
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