Following the German election, the centre-left, which ten years ago dominated 13 out of 15 west European governments, now looks a shrunken and confused political force. Sweden, which goes to the polls in a year’s time, seems likely to vote out the Social Democrats. In Italy, which also votes next year, an unpopular ruling coalition of the right faces a weak coalition of the left that stretches from moderate Christian Democrats to anti- globalisation communists, under the leadership of Romano Prodi.
It is also evident that the left is fragmenting, with the far left gaining votes in many countries at the expense of the centre-left. Where far left parties are in a governing coalition (the Socialist Left party in Sweden) or in opposition (the Rifondazione Communista in Italy) they generally act as an electoral drag on the larger centre-left party—being necessary for parliamentary votes, but putting off centrist voters.
Analyses from within the parties of the left tend to fall into two camps—those which believe that their policies are not left-wing enough, and those which believe they are not right-wing enough. But where the goal of both wings was once socialism—quick or slow—now the choice is starker: socialism or not. The challenge, offered most clearly by New Labour, Europe’s most successful party of the left, is to drop socialism—and win.
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